Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Toronto Blue Jays OF George Springer hit .220 with a .674 OPS last season. He particularly looked cooked over the final two months, hitting a sad .165 in August and delivering only one RBI in September, the month during which the veteran turned 35 years old. Fantasy managers fondly recall the Springer of days gone by who was a top-10 outfielder for portions of his Houston Astros career, and even as recently as 2023, he was a valuable 20/20 player.

Don’t be surprised… if Springer finishes as a top-10 fantasy outfielder this season

Fantasy managers are quick to fade older players on rough statistical trajectories, and Springer was not among the first 40 outfielders taken in ESPN standard leagues. With only three outfielders per ESPN team, that meant Springer went undrafted in many leagues. He hit .306 in April (thanks to a .400 BABIP), but with only two home runs. In May, Springer hit .209 (with a .214 BABIP, of course), and six home runs. OK, so those were mixed results. However, most everyone has noticed the July version of Springer, hitting .412 with five home runs, 13 RBI and more walks than whiffs over nine games.

Credit Springer for a little reinvention at a time few had faith — and it all looks sustainable. Springer’s walk rate is the highest of his career, but he’s swinging at the right pitches. He is striking out a bit more than last year, but not by chasing. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are career bests. Last season, he couldn’t catch up to fastballs. Now, he is. We all would trade in some contact for more power. Springer’s ground ball rate, at a disturbing 50.7% last season, is back down to 37.4%. His fly ball rate is 41.9%. Springer is whacking pitches he can drive and ignoring the ones he can’t. It seems so simple, right?

Let’s put it another way. Last season, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led all Blue Jays hitters in fantasy points, outscoring Springer by 223 points. Entering Thursday, Guerrero and Springer are both averaging 2.8 fantasy points per game. Springer is the No. 12 outfielder on the Player Rater. Combine that with a rejuvenated SS Bo Bichette, 3B Addison Barger looking like a 30-HR option and overachieving UT Ernie Clement, along with better pitching and the sport’s best defense, and you’ve got a surprising first-place team bound for October.

Don’t be surprised… if three Philadelphia Phillies finish among the top-20 starting pitchers

Ace RHP Zack Wheeler is the obvious one, of course. Wheeler and Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal are the most valuable pitchers in fantasy this season, the leading contenders for their respective league’s Cy Young awards. Skubal earned the award last season, while Wheeler finished second to Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale. Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes is awesome, and he leads all starters in ERA, but Wheeler tops Skenes in innings per start, strikeouts, WHIP, and WAR. Ignore win totals and Wheeler remains the leader.

LHPs Cristopher Sanchez (2.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and Ranger Suarez (1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) are just outside the top 20 for starting pitchers on the roto/categories themed Player Rater. Sanchez is top 20 in points formats. Suarez, with fewer starts since he missed all of April with a back injury, is top 40. Sanchez, a worthy All-Star last season who finished 40th among starters in fantasy points, is more trustworthy. Suarez, a pending free agent, has never made 30 starts in a season. He had a 2.76 ERA before the break last year, and a 5.65 ERA after it. It is tougher to trust Suarez, but he hasn’t permitted more than two earned runs in any of his last nine starts.

As for other Phillies pitching thoughts, RHP Aaron Nola (rib) remains rostered in 70.1% of standard leagues, while RHP Andrew Painter, arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport, is at 4.4%. Fair or unfair? Probably fair. Nola should return early in August. The Phillies had claimed that Painter would debut in July. The problem is that Painter hasn’t been great lately at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, posting an overall 4.97 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 11 starts. He is missing bats, while also permitting walks and home runs. Painter might well join the big-league rotation first, but it is tough to trust rookies. Nola, even if he makes only seven or eight full MLB starts, is the one to roster.

Don’t be surprised… if four Los Angeles Angels reach 30 home runs

Few expected the Angels to contend for a playoff spot, and perhaps they will fade at some point, but this team will enter the second half with a shot. How are they doing it? The Angels are near the league average for runs scored, well below the mark in OBP, and worse than average in both runs allowed and ERA. They are doing one notable thing quite well. They hit home runs. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks have hit more. Last season’s Angels hit 165 home runs. This season’s Angels might slide past that number before August.

Everyone knows the diminished-but-formidable OF Mike Trout (16 HR) and OF Taylor Ward (20 HR) is rostered in 65% of ESPN standard leagues, but OF Jo Adell (19 HR) is one to watch. Adell is among the most-added hitters in ESPN leagues because he has hit .290 with 12 home runs and driven in 29 runs since the start of June. Adell is a career .219 hitter with a low 6.4% walk rate (.268 OBP), but suddenly he has 11 walks — nearly half his 2025 total — over the past three weeks. He isn’t Juan Soto, of course, but this is a new, fantasy-worthy Adell, and he looks like a 35-HR fellow.

It is reasonable to expect Adell and Ward to soar past 30 home runs, and Trout should get there for the eighth time (and the first time since 2022) if he stays healthy. C Logan O’Hoppe has 17 home runs (but only 10 walks, and a .261 OBP). SS Zach Neto is slugging .477. Four Angels (Troy Glaus, Mo Vaughn, Garret Anderson, Tim Salmon) hit 30 home runs in 2000. Perhaps we’ll even see five Angels hit 30 home runs in 2025 — a first in franchise history! It doesn’t make any of them particularly great points league options, but Adell is getting there, and it is different in roto.

Don’t be surprised… if San Francisco Giants 3B/DH Rafael Devers leads the Boston Red Sox in walks this season

Perhaps this one has little fantasy utility, as the Red Sox dealt the controversial Devers to the NL on June 15. Still, Devers drew 56 walks in his 73 games and 334 PA for Boston — a 16.8% rate far greater than anything in his long career. He has played 21 games for San Francisco. The walk rate is down a bit and the strikeout rate is way up, but let’s remember what happened to start the season. Devers began the year with an 0-for-19. He recovered. Devers is top 20 in baseball in OPS, second to Soto in walks. He leads in PA and is 15th in ESPN fantasy points.

No current Red Sox hitter has 30 walks, so perhaps that is the bigger story. Since the Devers trade, only the Rockies (of course) and Mets (how, with Soto?) have drawn fewer walks. OF Roman Anthony, in 20 games and 87 PA, is walking at an 11.7% rate, which is good and far away the top rate on the team. Anthony is breaking out, hitting .383 with a .995 OPS over the past fortnight. Things have been good for SS Trevor Story, a top-10 points league option over the past 30 days, but Anthony will be this offense’s fantasy star soon. He just might not lead the Red Sox in walks this season.