Key Takeaways
- The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) is falling below 65%.
- The Altcoin Dominance Chart is on the precipice of a breakout.
- Will altcoin season begin in the second half of 2025?
The crypto market has rallied since April, and Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high in May.
Altcoins have not fared as well. Rather, they are creating lower highs relative to last year’s.
Nevertheless, the BTCD and altcoin movement this month shows promise.
The charts show a unique combination, which, while it needs more confirmation, could lead to the beginning of altcoin season in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin Dominance Weakens
The Bitcoin Dominance chart fell amid a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick between May 7 and 14, dropping from its cycle high of 65.38% to 61.89%.
While the speed of the decline indicated the start of a bearish trend reversal, BTCD created six straight bullish weekly candlesticks afterward.
While the BTCD reached a new cycle high of 66.03% in June, it showed signs of weakness.
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The weakness is evident in momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have created bearish divergences.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the MACD has made a bearish cross (black circle), which points to strengthening bearish momentum. If the weekly closes like this, it will be the first bearish momentum bar since January 2025.
To confirm the bearish trend reversal, the Bitcoin Dominance must close below the 65% horizontal support area, confirming a deviation and downward movement in the chart.
The proposed scenario will also cause a breakdown from a very steep ascending support trend line.
The wave count aligns. It shows that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of an upward movement that started in August 2022.
BTCD’s sub-wave count indicates wave five is over, creating an ending diagonal.
So, all signs point to the Bitcoin Dominance rolling over soon, finally leading to the first altcoin season of 2025.
Altcoin Dominance Increases
Another extremely telling chart for the possibility of an altcoin season is the altcoin dominance chart.
The chart shows a five-wave downward movement ongoing since December 2024.
While the decline signals a decisive bearish trend, the momentum gradually weakens.
The final portion of the decline is contained inside a descending wedge. The pattern fits perfectly with an ending diagonal for wave five.
Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD have generated bullish divergences.
Since the price has reached the end of the descending wedge, a decisive movement is likely soon.
Based on the wave count, price action, and indicator readings, the Altcoin dominance will explode toward 8.80%, marking the start of the altcoin season.
Altcoin Season is Imminent
Even though altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin heavily in 2025, that is about to change.
Bitcoin’s dominance is close to rolling over, while the Altcoin dominance is on the precipice of a breakout.
Combining the readings from these two charts can lead to a period of altcoin outperformance.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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