Editor’s note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2025, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay’s updated projections throughout the season.

Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

Over the past decade, 96% of players who scored 14 or more touchdowns scored fewer the season after (47 of 49).

The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 versions of this yearly report provide overwhelming evidence.

Of the 130 names in those reports, 117 scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That’s an absurd hit rate of 90%. Last season, the report correctly identified 14 of 17 TD dippers, with Kyren Williams (15 to 16), De’Von Achane (11 to 12) and Jordan Addison (10 to 10) the lone exceptions. The 17 players who averaged 13.0 TDs in 2023 were projected for 7.9 TDs in 2024 and ended up averaging 7.2.

This is far from surprising, as we’ve learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It’s not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.

During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 256 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those 256, a whopping 208 (81.3%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season, and the average change was a decrease of 4.9. Of the 61 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 58 (95.1%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.6). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley III (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and the aforementioned Williams.

Every player other than Williams who scored 14-plus TDs in 2023 found the end zone less often in 2024: Raheem Mostert (21 to 2), Christian McCaffrey (21 to 0), Jalen Hurts (15 to 14), Josh Allen (15 to 13) and CeeDee Lamb (14 to 6).

If that’s not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity. The number is how many touchdowns a league-average player would’ve scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

A careful examination of each of the following player’s 2024 usage shows that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.

Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

2024 TDs: 20
2025 Projected TDs: 14

Gibbs exploded for 20 touchdowns last season, and if he reaches that mark again, he’ll be only the sixth player in NFL history to achieve that feat. Gibbs was substantially above his expected TD total (13.2) and well behind David Montgomery in carries inside the 5-yard line when both were active (17 to 11). Even in a terrific Detroit offense, a dip is likely.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

2024 TDs: 18
2025 Projected TDs: 13

The gap between Cook’s actual (18) and expected (11.0) TD total was the widest in the NFL last season. His 18 scores doubled his total during his first two NFL seasons (nine) and the enormous spike came despite playing in a three-headed committee that limited his carries (19th among RBs), targets (34th), touches (22nd) and carries inside the 5-yard line (10th). Barring a role change, he is a major long shot to come close to 18 in 2025.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

2024 TDs: 17
2025 Projected TDs: 12

Chase led the NFL in end zone targets (19), routes, total targets, receptions, yards and TD receptions last season. He’s a good bet to rank near the top of the league in all of those categories again in 2025, but the gap between his scoring and expected TD total (12.2) suggests a return to earth. After scoring 13 TDs as a rookie in 2021, Chase scored a total of 16 TDs during the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

2024 TDs: 13
2025 Projected TDs: 7

McLaurin hauled in 13 TDs (second most among WRs) in 2024 after totaling 24 during his first five seasons. He handled 14 end zone targets (tied for eighth in the league) and caught a league-high 10 of them, which is impressive but also unsustainable. McLaurin has finished exactly 19th at the position in targets three seasons in a row and has never finished higher than 15th in catches. He’ll need more volume to repeat his big TD total.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

2024 TDs: 11
2025 Projected TDs: 7

Andrews finished first in TDs but 20th in targets among tight ends last season. The veteran caught nine of his 10 end zone targets, nearly doubling his career catch rate (47%) on those plays. No other player with more than three end zone targets had a catch rate above 71%. As good as Andrews has been in his career, he’s never been so TD dependent (his 16.2% TD rate was way above his prior career rate of 7.1%) and a return to earth in 2025 is a near lock.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins

2024 TDs: 9
2025 Projected TDs: 5

I’m grouping this duo together because both had the same number of touchdowns (9), same expected TD total (4.6) and have the same 2025 TD projection (5). Bateman (4.6 xTD) ranked outside the top 55 wide receivers in targets and receptions, but finished eighth in TDs thanks to Lamar Jackson’s career-high 41 TD passes. This is after Bateman totaled four TDs (4.9 xTD) during his first three NFL seasons.

Westbrook-Ikhine’s performance was even more bizarre and somewhat historical. It was only the 13th instance in league history (and the first since 1974) of a player catching nine-plus TDs on 32 or fewer receptions. Westbrook-Ikhine’s math-breaking season included a stretch in which he scored eight TDs in as many games despite totaling 20 touches during the span. Despite the move from Tennessee to a better Miami offense, a big TD dip is a near lock.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

2024 TDs: 8
2025 Projected TDs: 4

Smith enjoyed a career year with the Dolphins in 2024, finishing top 5 among tight ends in targets, catches, yards and, of course, touchdowns. However, Smith’s 5.2 xTD and six end zone targets both ranked eighth or lower at the position. The journeyman has a history of regressing sharply from unsustainable TD production. After scoring eight TDs on 41 catches with the Tennessee Titans in 2020 (what is in the water in Tennessee?!), he followed with four TDs on 105 receptions over the following three seasons.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 3

Freiermuth ranked fourth among tight ends in TDs (seven) but 20th in expected TDs (3.1) last season. The expected TD total aligned closely with where he was when he scored two TDs in both 2022 and 2023. He handled a career-low two end zone targets and hasn’t had more than five in a season since 2021. Especially with Smith and DK Metcalf now in the mix, Freiermuth could see his TD total cut in half this season.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers

2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 4

After scoring two TDs on 40 targets as a rookie in 2023, Kraft exploded for seven scores on 70 targets in 2024 despite his xTD improving only slightly (from 1.0 to 2.8). Kraft ranked exactly 18th among tight ends in target share, targets and receptions, but he finished fourth in TDs. Kraft is clearly a pretty good player (he led the position in RAC in both seasons), but he’ll need more work near the goal line (three career end zone targets) in order to come close to his 2024 TD total.

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts

2024 TDs: 7
2025 Projected TDs: 2

Pierce had one of the biggest outlier showings of 2024. After posting 41-593-2 and 32-514-2 receiving lines during his first two NFL seasons, Pierce exploded for a 37-824-7 line in 2024. The leap came despite similar usage. Pierce’s boost was a product of unsustainable conversion rates on both long balls (three 40-plus TDs) and end zone targets (4-of-7). He simply doesn’t see enough work to allow big TD totals.

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