- Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTH) are not distributing.
- The ratio between LTH and STH is not indicative of a top.
- HODL Waves show that dip buyers are not taking profit.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell 30% after its all-time high in November 2024. Then, it rallied in April 2025, reaching a new all-time high in May.
On-chain indicators relating to long- and short-term holders show that the former is not distributing despite the all-time high.
Long-term holder (LTH) and Short-Term Holder (STH) market activity gives insight into what lies ahead for Bitcoin in 2025.
Long-Term Holder Behavior
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Behavior Analysis indicator can help determine when the market cycle will end.
Historically, periods when spending and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) are high (green) coincide with Bitcoin market cycle tops.
Long-term holders have distributed a maximum of two times in one cycle, after which the BTC price began to decline.
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The current cycle is the first to break the trend. There have been two distinct periods of LTH distribution, in March 2024 and November 2024-April 2025 (black circles).
However, instead of falling, the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high in May 2025, breaking the historical pattern.
The LTH and STH supply ratio shows that the LTH supply is at an all-time high of over 14 million coins, while STHs hold less than four million coins.
This starkly contrasts with previous market cycle tops when LTHs were distributing and STHs buying.
To conclude, these two on-chain indicators that relate to holder distribution suggest that Bitcoin’s market cycle top has not yet been reached.
Realized Cap HODL Wave
The Realized Cap HODL Wave is an on-chain indicator that shows Bitcoin’s transaction age. Similarly to the previous indicators, a market cycle ends when LTHs do not participate in market activity.
More specifically, bands below three months, which have 70% of the market activity, indicate that Bitcoin’s market cycle has ended.
These bands currently account for roughly 30% of market activity, which is nowhere near the values during the previous market cycle tops.
Another interesting development that points to accumulation is the transfer from the 3-6 month band (orange) to the 6-12 month one (yellow).
This means market participants who bought between January and March 2025 have not sold despite the new all-time high Bitcoin price.
Instead, they are holding, as evidenced by the swelling of the three-to-six-month band. The lack of profit-taking is a strong sign of market conviction and does not align with a BTC market cycle top.
No Distribution Yet
Bitcoin’s long-term holders distributed in November 2024 but are dormant in the current highs.
Moreover, those who bought the Jan-April dip have not yet taken profits.
LTH behavior is unlike that of previous BTC cycle highs.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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