September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -10.10 (-3.09%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is down -161 (-4.04%).

Coffee prices today are sharply lower after updated weather forecasts removed the chance of frost in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais.

Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past seven weeks, with arabica coffee falling to a 5-1/4 month low last Wednesday and robusta sliding to a 13-month low today due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies.

Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest is weighing on prices as Safras & Mercado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%.  The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11.  Brazil’s arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced today that its members reported the coffee harvest was 24.3% complete as of June 20.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter of coffee.

On May 19, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil is supportive for coffee prices.  On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended June 21.

Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 5-week low today of 5,126 lots.  In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 865,898 bags as of Monday.