Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!

Chicago Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong has become one of fantasy baseball’s top players and, according to ESPN BET, a legitimate NL MVP candidate. He entered Wednesday with 19 home runs and 23 stolen bases — a combination no other player can match. He’s on pace for only the seventh 40/40 season in history and the first ever by a Cub. Put simply, when including elite defense, we may be watching one of the greatest roto fantasy seasons for a primary center fielder.

Don’t be surprised… if Crow-Armstrong falls short of top-20 status in ESPN points leagues

Perhaps this bold, risky statement isn’t bold or risky enough, but it surely addresses a major difference between roto/categories leagues and points-league scoring. Despite contributing seven home runs and 10 stolen bases over the past 30 days, Crow-Armstrong is not among the top-30 hitters in points leagues over that span. Frankly, the regression many expected has been happening for weeks, just not in the high-identity markers of home runs and steals. Crow-Armstrong isn’t reaching base enough. One can define “enough” in many ways, but a .307 OBP sure doesn’t feel like enough.

Crow-Armstrong may reach 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases this season and end up being less valuable than at least 20 other hitters because he neither produces a high batting average nor draws many walks. In roto/categories formats, he is a top-10 option and arguably the league MVP when considering the context of draft day/auction attention. Crow-Armstrong, who hit .237 with a .670 OPS during his rookie season (albeit with 27 steals), however, was merely a mid-round pick in many ESPN points-league drafts in March.

Points-league investors must evaluate Crow-Armstrong differently than those in roto formats, and far more harshly. We saw this last season with Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz. He delivered 25 home runs with a league-leading 67 stolen bases and finished 26th in points scoring, behind Willy Adames, Josh Naylor and Brent Rooker. This season, De La Cruz is pacing similarly to Crow-Armstrong, with 16 home runs and 21 steals, and is only a few points behind him in full-season points scoring. Philadelphia Phillies SS Trea Turner is another example of a roto star often misjudged for points scoring. Turner finished 49th among points-league hitters last season.

The six quite notable (and surely controversial, in a few cases) members of the 40/40 club (Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2023 and Shohei Ohtani last season) each walked at least 6% of the time in those seasons. The lowest batting average and OBP among the bunch was Soriano at .277/.351 for the 2006 Nationals. Crow-Armstrong is hitting .270 with a .307 OBP and a 4.6% walk rate. However, he is hitting only .250 with a .287 OBP over the past 30 days. Pitchers have adjusted to Crow-Armstrong. He has just five walks in that span, and more extra-base hits than singles.

There have been 72 seasons in which a player reached 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season, and plenty of options did not reach base at a high rate. The lowest OBP for such a season is Joe Carter, in 1987 for Cleveland, at .304. Soriano, when he went 39/41 for the 2002 Rangers, walked only 23 times, though he hit .300. Atlanta’s Ron Gant hit .251 while going 32/34 for the 1991 Braves, the lowest batting average of the club. What Crow-Armstrong is doing, in many ways, is historic and unprecedented.

How can two scoring formats evaluate an outstanding player so differently? Even as pitchers adjust to Crow-Armstrong, he can continue focus on hitting for power and stealing bases. While the Cubs and fantasy managers pine for a higher walk rate and better (reasonable) results versus left-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong ranks well for Barrels and exit velocity. He is among the leaders in fly ball percentage, with the fourth-lowest rate of ground balls. Nobody questions his speed, of course. Perhaps nobody is questioning anything. Perhaps they should.

Don’t be surprised… if Boston’s (pending) DH outscores rival New York’s (current) DH this season

The Boston Red Sox, fresh off their stunning Rafael Devers trade, expect DH Masataka Yoshida (shoulder) to make his 2025 debut soon. The Devers trade clears playing time. The New York Yankees welcomed back DH Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) for his debut this week. The muscular Stanton hit 27 home runs over 114 games and 459 PA last season, some of them among the hardest-hit moonshots in the sport, and he has more than 400 home runs in his storied career. Fantasy managers know him and often rely on him.

Yet, Yoshida (in 108 games and 421 PA and with only 10 home runs in his second MLB season since arriving from Japan) outscored Stanton in points formats in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. It is true, and it can happen again.

Let’s be clear that neither Yoshida nor Stanton should be coveted by fantasy managers in ESPN’s standard game, especially with health and playing time hardly assured. Still, Yoshida averaged 2.2 ESPN fantasy points per game last season, besting Stanton’s 1.9 mark. Yoshida’s average was among top-50 status and the same as what New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso, Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson and Pittsburgh Pirates OF Bryan Reynolds produced.

This is possible because Yoshida has been a .285 hitter over two MLB seasons and 1,001 PA, with modest power and an 86% contact rate. While Yoshida rarely strikes out (12.4% in 2024), Stanton is quite the opposite (31.2% in 2024). Home runs matter in any fantasy format, but so do walks and strikeouts.

Yoshida hit .347 as Boston’s No. 3 hitter last season — a role he may soon acquire again — and he hit .299 overall in the second half. Stanton hit .233 last season, and .191 the year prior. Both Boston and New York seemingly have more worthy players than active lineup spots, and these 30-something DH options must perform well to warrant playing time.

As of Wednesday morning, Stanton was rostered in 16.1% of ESPN standard leagues, among the most-added players, and still rising. Yoshida is rostered in 1.9% of leagues. Perception is so often opposite of reality.

Don’t be surprised… if San Diego Padres RHP Dylan Cease is a top-20 fantasy starter yet again

Cease enters this weekend’s scheduled start against the Kansas City Royals with an unsightly 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He permitted six earned runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his most recent outing. He has won just two of his 15 starts this season. Sure, Cease is among the leaders in strikeouts, but at what cost to fantasy managers? Cease is not among the top-50 points-league pitching scorers this season.

Last season, Cease was the No. 6 starting pitcher in ESPN fantasy points. He won 14 games with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking more than 200 hitters for the fourth consecutive season. Oh, and Cease had a 4.24 ERA on the morning of July 7, 2024. From that point on, he produced a 2.58 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 15 starts (winning seven) with 94 strikeouts.

We cannot assume that just because Cease was awesome over the final three months of last season that he will duplicate those excellent numbers, but then again, always bet on talent. Cease is among the strikeout leaders, posting his highest mark since 2021. Entering Wednesday, his 2.94 FIP ranks 13th among qualified starting pitchers and his 3.47 expected ERA is 19th. Only four starting pitchers have a higher BABIP than Cease’s .343 mark. Cease has been unlucky. Trade for him.

Don’t be surprised… if Braves OF Jurickson Profar is a top-20 outfielder starting in July

Profar, 32, is finishing up an 80-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, and many fantasy managers may wish to avoid investing. After all, Profar comes off a stunning, career year in which he hit .280 with 24 home runs, 85 RBIs, 10 steals and 94 runs for the Padres. Since the suspension, some might assume that’s how he had a career season at age 31.

Don’t assume to know the entire story or what this means for Profar moving forward. He has begun playing for Triple-A Gwinnett and notched a pair of hits and a walk in his first game. Profar is eligible to make his Atlanta debut on July 2. The Braves claim that Profar, signed to a three-year contract, will hit in the No. 2 lineup spot — after Acuna and prior to power bats Olson, DH Marcell Ozuna and 3B Austin Riley. A surprisingly underachieving lineup suddenly becomes more formidable.

Perhaps we cannot expect or assume Profar to produce at quite the same level as last season, but we also should not dismiss the possibility for last season’s No. 15 hitter for points scoring. Atlanta’s pending No. 2 hitter is rostered in 18.6% of ESPN standard leagues.