Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin surged past $107,000 during Monday’s European session.
- Gold rose to $3,450 per ounce, just shy of its $3,500 all-time high.
- The divergence between crypto and traditional safe havens like gold is becoming more pronounced amid rising global tensions.
As geopolitical tensions escalate, global markets are feeling the heat, sending traditional safe havens like gold and the U.S. dollar soaring.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to reclaim its narrative as a hedge in times of crisis.
Risk aversion is dominating investor behavior, but while gold is rallying on fear, Bitcoin is trading more like a high-risk tech stock, raising questions about how it fits into the global flight to safety.
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Bitcoin Eyes a New Record High
Bitcoin bounced back on Monday, climbing above $107,000 during the European session after a steep correction last week.
Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly as the Israel-Iran conflict stretches into its fourth day, institutional interest hasn’t slowed.
Metaplanet added another 1,100 BTC to its balance sheet, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $1.37 billion last week.
BTC has broken past key resistance at $106,406 and is now approaching a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at $108,064.
This zone may act as resistance—if rejected, Bitcoin could drop back toward support at $102,943 (the 50-day EMA), with a potential dip to the psychological $100,000 level if that fails.
Technical signals remain mixed: Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, suggesting a lack of clear momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) recently flashed a bearish crossover, hinting at short-term downside risk.
A strong daily close above $108,064, however, could open the door for a run toward BTC’s May 22 all-time high of $111,980.
Gold Correlation to Stocks Lowers
Gold surged to $3,450 per ounce, just $50 shy of its April record, as demand for safe-haven assets surges in the face of geopolitical turmoil and renewed trade tensions.
The yellow metal is now up 30% on the year, cementing its reputation as a go-to asset in times of uncertainty.
In contrast to Bitcoin, gold’s correlation with equities remains low, reinforcing its traditional role as a portfolio hedge.
Analysts note that gold’s price could continue to rise if economic signals or policy updates suggest further inflation concerns or rate cuts.
Safe-Haven Rush Boosts the Dollar and Yen
During the crisis, the U.S. dollar gained ground alongside the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
The dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.07 in early Asia trading.
The yen appreciated 0.35%, while the Swiss franc dropped 0.39% against the dollar.
Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar fell nearly 0.9%.
Earlier in the week, the dollar had pulled back on softer U.S. inflation data and expectations of more aggressive Fed rate cuts, but global instability has once again flipped the script.
Crude prices also jumped more than $4, while gold climbed another 0.8%, marking its highest levels since early May.
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