I want to see Connor McDavid raise the Stanley Cup.

I want to see all that regular-season hardware — five scoring titles, three Hart trophies as league MVP, the four-time NHLPA most outstanding player — metaphorically traded for a Stanley Cup ring, like when you turn in smaller prizes for a larger one during a carnival game. I want him rewarded for his 10 years of trying to will the Edmonton Oilers to their first Stanley Cup since 1990. Those fans deserve another party, with McDavid as the master of ceremonies.

I want to see him permanently overwrite those images of himself as an empty husk after Game 7 last season, his soul seemingly drained from his body by a series so emotionally erratic that he was voted the playoffs’ most valuable player moments after losing in the championship finale.

I want to see the laziest counterargument to McDavid’s status as a hockey deity — that he “never won the Cup” — rendered immaterial, as it eventually was for players such as Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I want that cathartic scream when he picks up the chalice for the first time. The king deserves his crowning moment.

Unfortunately, what I want and what the Florida Panthers are willing to give McDavid aren’t at all aligned. They deprived him of his Stanley Cup win last season. They’ve going to do it again in this Stanley Cup Final rematch, despite the sportsbooks and the majority of pundits believing that it’s McDavid’s moment.

Here are five reasons the Panthers are likely headed for a repeat:

Florida is better than last season’s Cup winner

It’s undeniable that the Oilers are a better team than they were last season.

Edmonton’s roster is deeper and more cohesive than the 2024 Western Conference champions. They’re scoring more (4.06 goals per game) than last season. Their 5-on-5 defense is remarkably better: 1.89 goals per 60 minutes, down from 2.55 last postseason.

Perhaps the most impressive part of the Oilers’ defensive game has been the ability to close out games — witness their shot suppression in the last three wins over the Dallas Stars. They were a minus-6 in the third period last postseason; they’re a plus-11 this season through 16 games. The only downgrade year-over-year is their penalty kill, which has given up 16 goals in 16 games while it gave up four in 25 games last season. One assumes the return of Mattias Ekholm will help.

But the Panthers are also better.

Like, a lot better. Which is scary.

Florida is a plus-27 in goal differential through 17 games, after finishing at a plus-11 last season. The Panthers are scoring more (3.88) and giving up less (2.29). At 5-on-5, they’ve gone from 2.39 goals per 60 minutes last season to 3.53 goals per 60 this season. Their power play is up year over year — something to keep in mind if the Oilers keep struggling on the PK — and the penalty kill is about the same.

They also upgraded in a few roster spots during the season, primarily with the additions of Seth Jones to their second defense pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.

Last season, Florida paired Niko Mikkola with Brandon Montour, a good puck-moving defenseman who parlayed his success with Florida into a free agent deal with the Seattle Kraken. The Panthers registered 49% of the shot attempts and averaged 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes when that pair was on the ice. Mikkola’s pairing with Jones is a marked upgrade: 56% of the shot attempts, 4.14 goals for and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo has an expected goals against of 1.48 per 60 minutes — Montour and Mikkola were at 2.37 last postseason.

That’s not just the addition of Jones to the Panthers’ top four. Mikkola has leveled up into something special, defending better and flashing a surprising amount of offensive speed for a 6-foot-6 defender nicknamed “The Condor.”

“Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he’s everywhere,” Marchand said. “I don’t think he gets enough credit. He’s extremely tough to play against. Then when you play with him, and you realize that he’s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he’s always on top of guys and he’s physical.”

The addition of Marchand has also made the Panthers a more dangerous team than last season — and not only in terms of what’s said on the ice during games. The third line of their Cup-winning team was anchored by center Anton Lundell and winger Eetu Luostarinen, a solid duo that skated with a variety of wingers. Putting Marchand with those two after acquiring him at the trade deadline from Boston improved the team in several ways.

Marchand, Lundell and Luostarinen have earned 53% of the shot attempts at 5-on-5. They average 4.2 goals and 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 points in 17 games. Luostarinen has 13 points in 17 games. Lundell has five goals and seven assists, and continues to give this team preposterous center depth as sort of a “Baby Barkov” for the Panthers.

By solidifying that line with Marchand, it allows the Panthers to keep their top six solidified. One duo is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The other duo is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They shuttle Carter Verhaeghe, one of the playoffs’ most clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics darling, between those lines on the wing. Both combinations have yielded results for Florida.

But beyond what’s happening on the ice — or perhaps as a catalyst for it — the Panthers are playing with the poise and confidence of a champion, fortified by a proof of concept that comes only after a Stanley Cup skate.

Bobrovsky vs. Skinner

These two goalies have had similar postseason journeys: Inconsistent and middling results early in the playoffs, followed by dominant runs that began in the middle of the second round and carried through to the Stanley Cup Final.

“Middling” is probably putting it kindly for Skinner’s playoffs, where he was benched in the first round and got back into the playoffs only when Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. But from Game 4 against Vegas to the Cup Final, he’s been scorching hot: 6-1, .944 save percentage, 1.41 goals-against average and three shutouts.

Bobrovsky wasn’t all that great early either until a Game 4 shutout against the Maple Leafs. After that, he went 7-2 with a .944 save percentage, a 1.34 goals-against average and two shutouts.

The Florida netminder had a chaotic Stanley Cup Final last season, but ended it with a 23-save effort at home in Game 7 to clinch the Cup. It was the kind of game that reinforced the “Playoff Bob” legend that the Oilers will no doubt hear about again this season.

Averaged out, Skinner and Bobrovsky were both at replacement levels for the totality of the playoffs according to Stathletes. Over their past five games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) has been better analytically than Skinner (1.89).

Skinner is playing well enough where he shouldn’t lose this series for Edmonton, which is really all they can ask from him and Pickard. But Bobrovsky, assuming he’s in “Playoff Bob” mode, can win this series for Florida. That’s the difference.

The Panthers are road warriors

The most significant change year-over-year between these teams is that the Oilers have home-ice advantage this time. Unfortunately, that might play into the Panthers’ hands.

Florida is 8-2 on the road, which is tied for the sixth-best winning percentage in NHL postseason history (minimum eight road games). Their 4.80 goals per game would make them the highest-scoring road playoff team in Stanley Cup history (again, minimum eight road games). That plus-27 goal differential in the postseason? It has all come on the road, where they’ve scored 48 times and given up 21 goals. They’re even (18 for and 18 against) at home.

“It’s us against the world. That kind of feeling,” defenseman Gustav Forsling said.

There are two clear reasons for the Panthers’ road dominance. The first is that Florida is at its absolute best when it trims the flourish out of its offensive game to become a blunt instrument.

“Our mindset is just play as simple as we can,” Verhaeghe said. “Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.”

The other reason: The Panthers absolutely love to suck the energy out of a road arena and send the opposing fans home feeling miserable.

“It’s fun when you’re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we’re doing our job,” Verhaeghe said.

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Aleksander Barkov

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can exert their will on a period, a game and a series. McDavid is coming off a series against Dallas in which he had nine points in five games, for example.

Florida has one of those guys, too. Barkov doesn’t get mentioned with the same breathless praise as the Oilers’ duo or Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon or Sidney Crosby. He has broken 90 points only once in his career, although his points-per-game rate between 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him 12th among all skaters, right between Crosby and Cale Makar. He’s not the most vocal guy, nor does he have the most boisterous personality — Panthers coach Paul Maurice joked that Barkov is “not doing a podcast when he’s done [playing].”

All of those players mentioned are Hart Trophy guys. Barkov is a Selke Trophy guy, having been named as the NHL’s best defensive forward for the third time in his career this week. You can’t be both. Since the best defensive forward award was first handed out in 1977-78, only two players have ever won a Hart and a Selke at some point in their careers: Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke. As of this season, the highest Barkov ever placed for MVP was sixth in 2020-21.

But he’s just as much of a game changer and series shifter as any other superstar, only his ability to do so sometimes starts in the defensive zone. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice during those seven games, earning the majority of the shot attempts and scoring chances.

He can create something out of nothing with his puck control and large frame.

Witness the series clincher against Carolina:

Rodrigues said that goal “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person” after Game 5.

“He’s so even-keeled,” Rodrigues said. “Doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he’s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.”

Which brings us to perhaps the most salient point in this prediction.

They’ll take what Edmonton gives them

This might be hyperbolic but that’s never stopped me before: I think the Panthers are basically built to be an Oilers countermeasure.

They can score with the Oilers. They can defend as good as any team in the NHL. They have impactful star players and effective role players. They’re unfazed by chaotic road environments. They’re well-coached. They play with a physicality, swagger and antagonism. They can dish it out and take it and then dish it out again.

But they also have that special trait shared with other great NHL champions, which is that they’re willing to win on their terms or on whatever terms the opponents will set for them.

Think about the Western Conference finals. Think about how the Dallas Stars felt like they had toppled into an abyss when the Oilers would score the first goal. Think about how they could send only four shots on Skinner in the third period of must-win games, frustrated to no end that they couldn’t play their game.

The Panthers don’t get flustered. They don’t lose their confidence or have their hope extinguished if things aren’t to their liking. They maximize the opportunities they earn. They’re meticulous and patient where others are harried and panicked.

Carolina was a stingy defensive team. The Panthers waited for their chances to pounce, and when they did, the games changed dramatically. In each of their wins over the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals, the Panthers scored multiple goals within four minutes of each other. Florida is the most “blood in the water” team in the NHL. In Game 3, it was five goals in 9:08. In Game 5, it was three goals in 4:36.

“We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do,” Barkov said. “The confidence level is high and everyone’s having fun right now.”

Prediction: Panthers in six

GM Bill Zito and his staff have constructed a Stanley Cup champion whose core players have the postseason competence and drive that other teams desperately try to import into their lineups at the deadline every season. The Panthers don’t need an infusion of “rings in the room.” They almost all have them now. Playoff self-assurance is a nucleotide in their hockey DNA.

Their “win at all costs” style has earned them detractors, but it has also earned them three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

Based on the Panthers’ recent play and their advantages in this matchup, it’ll also earn them a second straight skate with Stanley.

And if I’m wrong, then Connor McDavid has his championship moment. Which would be awesome, too.