Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant analysts believe altcoin season may be nearing—but only if Bitcoin dominance drops.
- BTC dominance currently sits at 64%, and needs to fall below 54% for altcoins to rally.
- So far, altcoins have struggled, hitting new lows with each Bitcoin pullback.
Bitcoin (BTC) recently slipped below $105,000 after reaching a fresh all-time high, and altcoins have taken an even bigger hit in the correction.
Despite renewed optimism earlier this year, hopes for a full-blown altcoin season continue to fade.
However, according to a new analysis from CryptoQuant, the story might not be over yet.
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Altcoins Could Rally in the Final Phase
CryptoQuant’s report points to a historical pattern: toward the final stages of a bull market, Bitcoin dominance usually falls as capital rotates into altcoins.
That rotation hasn’t happened this time around—at least not yet.
“As the cycle approaches its final stages, Bitcoin’s dominance is likely to decrease,” the report notes. “Altcoins may see steeper rises than in previous patterns, potentially marking the end of the cycle.”
In past cycles, altcoins often lagged Bitcoin’s early gains but outpaced it in the final run-up. New capital would flow into smaller assets once BTC cooled off.
However, so far this year, altcoins have failed to deliver. Ethereum (ETH), for instance, is still trading around $2,500, roughly 40% below its all-time high of $4,400, even as Bitcoin hit record highs.
ETH hasn’t been able to hold above $3,000 for long, and many altcoins that spiked in January have since cooled off sharply.
BTC Dominance Must Fall for Altseason To Begin
The biggest hurdle remains Bitcoin’s dominance , which is now hovering around 64%. That’s the highest level in over three years, and a major roadblock for altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance tracks BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap. When this figure is high, it means BTC is outperforming the rest of the market.
For altseason to kick in, dominance typically needs to fall below 54%.
Right now, every Bitcoin dip pulls altcoins down even harder. And with dominance still rising, some analysts are beginning to question whether a true alt season is even possible this cycle.
This is now the longest it’s ever taken for altcoin season to arrive in a bull market—and for now, investors are left waiting.
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