Key Takeaways
- The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) fell in May.
- The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) is nearing a breakout.
- Will there be an altcoin season in the second half of 2025?
The crypto market has increased admirably since April, culminating with a new Bitcoin (BTCD) all-time high on May 22.
Altcoins have not been subject to similar increases, and most trade well below their all-time highs.
However, the Bitcoin Dominance has fallen since the beginning of May.
The decline leads to an important question: Is the crypto market due for an alt season in 2025, or will Bitcoin continue dominating?
Let’s examine some charts to find out.
Bitcoin Dominance Falls
Bitcoin Dominance has been climbing steadily since July 2022, moving within an ascending parallel channel on the weekly chart.
While the rise has been gradual, BTCD has mostly stayed in the upper half of the channel, which is a bullish sign.
You’ll Want To See This
However, in early May, BTCD dropped sharply after hitting strong resistance near 65%, a level reinforced by both horizontal resistance and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
The price bounced off the channel’s midline, but technical indicators suggest growing weakness.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirmed a bearish divergence following the drop, while the MACD is nearing a bearish crossover (black circle), both signaling potential downside.
A break below the channel’s midline would likely confirm a broader shift toward altcoin outperformance, commonly known as altcoin season.
On the six-hour chart, BTCD briefly pushed above the 0.618 Fib retracement level before falling back below it, forming a bearish deviation (black circle).
Despite the drop, the structure resembles an A-B-C correction (red), not a full impulsive move.
This suggests we could see a final push toward 64.75% in the short term before a more decisive reversal takes hold.
Altcoins Could Break Out
The next chart, the Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP), points to an altcoin season in the second half of 2025.
ALTCAP started a five-wave upward movement (green) in April and is currently in an extended wave three.
The sub-wave count is black, showing consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle.
This indicates wave four and points to an eventual breakout from the triangle.
So, while the ALTCAP trades below critical resistance at $1.26 trillion, the wave count suggests a breakout is likely.
Afterward, wave four could return and validate the area as support.
Then, the most parabolic portion of the altcoin season will be wave five.
The RSI supports this bullish prediction since it has generated a hidden bullish divergence (orange), a sign of trend continuation.
Is it Altcoin Season?
The Bitcoin dominance rate fell in the first week of May, and trades were inside resistance.
On the other hand, the ALTCAP is attempting to break out from its resistance.
These two charts combine to create conditions ripe for an altcoin season in the second half of 2025.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Was this Article helpful?
