The ongoing market cycle has not been kind to altcoins. While the Bitcoin (BTC) price continuously reached new all-time highs, most altcoins have not.

The rising Bitcoin Dominance perfectly encapsulates this, showing that BTC has outperformed most altcoins.

However, there are cracks in the Bitcoin Dominance chart, which could develop into a full-blown altcoin season.

Will there be an altcoin season in 2025? Let’s examine a few charts and answer that question.

Bitcoin Dominance Wanes

The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has increased inside an ascending parallel channel since July 2022.

While there have been declines within this pattern, BTC mostly traded in the channel’s upper portion.

The main exception was three weeks in December 2024, which ended with a strong bounce (green icon) and new highs.

While BTCD reached a high of 65.38% in May, it created a bearish engulfing candlestick, confirming the 64% area as resistance.

Technical indicators show some bearish signs, specifically, a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

While the BTCD has not yet fallen in the channel’s lower portion, it shows some of the most bearish signs since the rally started.

The shorter-term BTC dominance chart aligns with this reading, since its shows a rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance of 64%.

The 0.618 Fibonacci level commonly acts as the top if the rally is corrective.

The minimal target for the downward movement would be 60.81%, giving waves A and C the same length.

However, the Bitcoin Dominance could go much lower if the decline is a five-wave downward movement. In that case, a breakdown from the long-term channel is possible.

Altcoins Show Strength

The Altcoins dominance chart shows the relative strength of medium-cap altcoins by charting their market caps against Bitcoin, excluding the 10 biggest altcoins.

The chart shows that altcoins have significantly underperformed BTC since December 2024, completing a five-wave downward movement (red).

If the count is accurate, the decline is over since altcoins broke out from a descending wedge, an ending diagonal.

Currently, they are attempting to validate the wedge as support (green icon).

A breakout above 8.75% will confirm the trend reversal, taking altcoins to the next resistance between 10 and 10.60%.

When Will Altcoin Season Start?

After a disappointing market cycle for altcoins, the charts suggest the altcoin season is finally here.

The BTCD decline aligns perfectly with an altcoin dominance breakout.

While it is unclear how long the increase will continue, the minimum target is a BTCD decline to 60%.

Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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