Key Takeaways
- TRX shows signs of local exhaustion and channel resistance.
- A breakdown below $0.266 may trigger a corrective A-B-C move.
- Long-term uptrend remains valid above the $0.21 support base.
TRON (TRX) has been trading within an ascending channel pattern following its recovery from a long corrective phase ending mid-March.
The daily chart shows a breakout from the WXY structure and a sustained climb toward key resistance zones.
However, the 1-hour chart reveals weakening momentum and an ending diagonal (fifth wave) structure, hinting at a near-term correction.
The macro trend remains intact, but a pullback appears imminent before any continued upside.
TRX Price Analysis
On the higher time frame, TRX has advanced steadily since bottoming at $0.21 in March.
The move unfolded within an ascending channel, with price nearing the upper resistance trendline around $0.275.
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This follows a breakout from the corrective WXY pattern, suggesting the early stages of a macro trend reversal.
However, the price is now approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $0.266, which has historically acted as a pivot level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hovering around 560, but the lack of breakout acceleration hints at consolidation or a local top.
Price rejection from the upper wedge boundary reinforces the case for a correction.
If a breakdown occurs, the next support lies at the mid-wedge zone near $0.25, followed by $0.235 and $0.21 – the base of the larger structure.
Structurally, the market may be finishing wave (V) of an impulsive sequence, and a broader ABC correction could unfold next.
Unless the $0.266 level is reclaimed decisively, further upside in the short term seems unlikely.
Since Monday, we saw an increase of 4% due to the 0.236 Fib level bounce, but this may not be enough to transition into the next upward move.
TRX Price Prediction
The lower timeframe chart confirms bearish divergence and a potential breakdown setup.
TRX appears to have completed a five-wave impulse within a rising channel, with wave (V) displaying signs of exhaustion.
Price forms a descending triangle below $0.275 resistance, and a breakdown below $0.266 (0.236 Fib) would confirm the beginning of a corrective wave A.
The projected move shows wave A targeting the lower channel support near $0.255, followed by a corrective wave B bounce back toward $0.266–$0.270.
This would complete a classic ABC retracement, with wave C potentially extending to $0.235 or $0.225, in line with the support trendline and historical congestion zones.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart is showing lower highs despite price consolidation, a bearish signal suggesting that momentum is waning.
A decisive breakdown could occur once support at $0.266 gives way.
The initial bearish target for wave A lies around $0.255 (the ascending support), while wave C could extend as low as $0.225 (0.618 Fib retracement from five-wave impulse) before buyers return.
This breakdown scenario remains the most probable unless bulls push back above $0.275 with volume.
The broader uptrend remains valid on the daily chart, but near-term traders should be cautious.
Key Levels to Watch
Support:
- $0.266 (0.236 Fib).
- $0.255 (channel midline).
- $0.235 (wave C target).
- $0.210 (macro low).
Resistance:
- $0.275 (local top).
- $0.30 (0.382 Fib).
- $0.33–$0.35 (medium-term retracement zone).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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