Key Takeaways
- Cardano completed a five-wave rally from the April low.
- A corrective ABC structure may be developing now.
- Key support around $0.655 could define the next reversal.
Cardano (ADA) has transitioned from a prolonged corrective structure into a five-wave impulsive advance, signaling a medium-term trend reversal.
However, signs of a near-term correction are emerging as the price fails to hold above key Fibonacci levels.
This analysis examines whether ADA is entering a typical ABC pullback or setting up for further downside.
ADA Price Analysis
ADA completed a W-X-Y corrective pattern in the higher time frame, bottoming out at $0.51 on April 7.
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The price initiated a strong 63%, impulsive five-wave sequence, peaking around $0.84 (wave v).
This rally recovered 50% of the prior downtrend, hitting the 0.5 Fib level at $0.838 before stalling.
The 0.618 Fib retracement level at $0.762 acts as interim support, aligning with the previous breakout zone.
We saw a bounce from this area, but this could be a temporary reaction before a decisive move below.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator shows a loss of momentum from overbought levels, suggesting the current move may be entering a consolidation or correction phase.
The broader bullish thesis remains valid if ADA exceeds $0.655 (0.786 Fib).
However, the failure to hold above $0.838 could mean the price is entering a more extended correction.
The price is trapped between macro resistance at $0.91 and key support at $0.762.
ADA Price Prediction
The lower time frame highlights the development of a classic ABC corrective structure following the peak at $0.84.
Wave (a) brought ADA down to the $0.762 level, while the current wave (b) appears to be a counter-rally that may retest $0.80–$0.82.
The rising channel formed during the five-wave impulse, whose breakout is awaited to confirm the correction onset.
The currently seen bounce is likely to lead to the (b) wave formation, so in the short term, this lower high will be the first sign of the coming correction.
RSI has reset to the mid-range, allowing another move down before becoming oversold again.
If the correction unfolds cleanly, ADA could find its final wave (c) support around $0.655–$0.622, which aligns with both Fibonacci confluence and structural support from April.
A bounce from that zone could begin the next bullish impulse toward $1.00 in the coming weeks.
According to this projection, ADA started a new bull phase on April 7, forming the first five-wave advancement.
The expected correction should be the second sub-wave of the higher degree count and form the first higher low.
This is why its confirmation will lead to a more optimistic price prediction, as its third sub-wave should bring the price considerably higher according to the Elliott Wave Theory.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $0.838 (0.5 Fib retracement).
- Short-Term Support: $0.762 (0.618 Fib retracement).
- Wave (c) Target: $0.655 (0.786 Fib support).
- Structural Low: $0.622 (April breakout level).
- Macro Resistance: $0.913 and $1.00 (0.382 & 0.236 Fibs).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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