Key Takeaways
- XMR’s price broke out of a long-term symmetrical triangle to reach its highest level since the May 2021 high.
- XMR strongly correlates with Bitcoin, meaning BTC’s movement could heavily influence its next direction.
- To maintain momentum, XMR’s price must stay above its 50 and 200 EMAs and break the resistance at $357.37.
Monero (XMR) price has soared its highest point in four years, climbing 60% over the past 30 days to reach $346.90 at press time. The last time XMR traded at this level was during the height of the bull market in May 2021.
This surge has pushed XMR into the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, making it the 24th most valuable digital asset.
What’s driving Monero’s rally — and what comes next for the privacy-focused coin?
Monero Sees Bullish Crossover
According to the weekly chart, the XMR price experienced this rally after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. As seen from the chart below, the coin has been stuck in this channel since August 2021.
This was shortly after it reached its all-time high in May of the same year. But amid rising demand, XMR exited its range-bound movement between $189.53 and $237.10 last month. The spike also happened due to the $330 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) exchanged for the altcoin in late April.
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Following the breakout, CCN observed a bullish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) — a key momentum indicator. In blue, the crossover occurred as the 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) climbed above the 26-day EMA (orange).
A similar MACD crossover preceded XMR’s surge to its all-time high in 2021. Therefore, if history rhymes, this setup could pave the way for Monero’s price to rally toward the $500 mark.
BTC Moves, XMR Follows
Furthermore, beyond the recent BTC-to-XMR swaps, Monero’s price action remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s movements.
According to data from Macroaxis, XMR and BTC share a strong correlation coefficient of 0.83, indicating a high degree of directional similarity.
For context, the correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to +1, where values near +1 suggest a strong positive correlation, and those near -1 indicate an inverse relationship.
Over the past 90 days, XMR has delivered approximately 0.79 times the return of Bitcoin on equivalent investments. As such, if Bitcoin’s price breaks a new high in the short term, Monero could follow suit.
XMR Price Analysis: $500 Not Far Off
Looking at the daily chart, we noticed that the 50 EMA (blue) has crossed over the 200 EMA (yellow). This crossover is bullish for XMR, indicating that the long-term price action still has the potential to produce more gains.
To validate that, XMR’s price must not drop below the indicators, as that would bearish the technical setup. If that is the case, the next target for XMR’s price could be $418.66.
This could happen if the coin breaks the $357.37 resistance near the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If validated, this could allow the altcoin to hit its all-time high of $517.73.
On the flip side, if Bitcoin price fails to notch a new high, the altcoin might experience low demand. Should that be the case, selling pressure could take over and XMR might slide toward $258.31.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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