Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 40% after its April 7 lows.
- The BTC price trades only 7% below its all-time high.
- Is Bitcoin due for a retracement, or will it keep rallying?
Bitcoin has increased by 40% since its April 7 low, approaching its all-time high of $109,356.
While sentiment was at its worst in April, the recent rally has sparked optimism that the bull market has not ended.
On the contrary, sidelined traders are hoping for a retracement to enter before the BTC price moves to new highs.
So, the main question is: Has Bitcoin’s cycle ended? If not, will the rally cool off, or will the price rip straight to new highs?
Let’s dive into expert perspectives and explore charts to discover answers.
Bullish BTC Sentiment
BTC sentiment on X is bullish, especially following the latest price increase.
XForceGlobal is bullish in the long term because of a positive wave count, though he expects a shallow BTC short-term retracement before the upward trend resumes.
CryptoKaleo has one of the most bullish predictions in the space. He suggests that BTC could go on a parabolic run of $1 million without a retracement.
CryptoGodJohn predicts a retracement to $97,000 – $99,000 before the Bitcoin price moves to a new all-time high.
Tony Severino is one of the last bears standing. His thesis is that Bitcoin’s perceived strength is simply a weakness in the USD, since the BTC to EUR chart does not show the same signs of strength.
Crypto Capo, one of the most infamous crypto traders on X, posted a picture of a black swan , predicting a black swan event, meaning that the Bitcoin price will crash soon.
Ironically, a black swan event is an “unpredictable or unforeseen event with extreme consequences”.
One of the more critical confessions came from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju , who tweeted that his previous prediction of the Bitcoin bull run being over is wrong, and data suggests new highs are likely.
Bitcoin Rally Ending?
The Bitcoin increase since April 7 is a five-wave upward movement (green) with shallow retracements for waves two and four.
The shallowness of the corrections signifies that the entire correction will be shallow, possibly ending at the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support levels.
The latter is also a horizontal support area, increasing its validity.
Technical indicators support the bearish short-term outlook, since the RSI and MACD have generated bearish divergences (orange).
Additionally, the RSI is below 50 and the MACD is almost negative, which, if it happens, would be the first time since the rally started in April.
Therefore, while the long-term trend is likely bullish because of the impulsive increase, a short-term BTC price decrease is likely.
Correction in a Bullish Trend
The increase in Bitcoin’s price since April 7 has created a bullish sentiment, as most analysts predict new all-time highs.
However, the short-term rally is also overextended, leading to the possibility of a decline to $95,600 – $98,200 before new highs.
If this scenario transpires, Bitcoin’s local top is already in place, and the correction has started.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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