Key Takeaways
- OP broke out after completing a full corrective structure.
- $1.23 is a key resistance and wave (v) target.
- RSI divergence hints at a short-term pullback soon.
Optimism (OP) has recently broken out from a long-term downtrend, finding support at $0.58 and rebounding with strong impulsive momentum.
The price has reclaimed the $0.85 level and now targets the central resistance cluster around $1.23.
While the bullish breakout has shifted sentiment, the short-term wave structure suggests potential for volatility as the market works through an impulsive extension.
OP Price Analysis
On the daily chart, OP completed a full five-wave corrective decline from the $3.00 region to the $0.58 support, close to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level from the macro rally.
The bounce from this zone initiated what appears to be the beginning of a larger impulsive reversal or corrective rally toward previous support turned resistance.
The price has reclaimed the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.849 and is approaching the central confluence zone at $1.23.
This area also coincides with the descending trendline from previous highs and acts as a high-probability reversal zone if bulls lose momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above 50, confirming momentum recovery, but it has not yet entered overbought territory, leaving room for further upside.
However, the green supply zone from $1.10 to $1.23 is historically significant and has acted as strong resistance throughout the past year.
If OP can break above this area, it could target the 0.236 Fib at $1.85.
Failure to break through could result in a rejection toward $0.73 or $0.653 support zones.
The macro reversal is underway, but the next impulse must be confirmed through $1.23 for continuation.
OP Price Prediction
On the 1-hour chart, OP is forming a textbook impulsive wave structure from the recent bottom at $0.58.
The first wave (i) topped at $0.88 before a corrective pullback in wave (ii), and price has now launched into wave (iii), which could extend toward $1.06–$1.18 based on Fibonacci projections.
Wave (iii) is targeting the 1.618 extension at $1.066, followed by wave (iv), which is likely to retrace back toward $0.963 (1.272 extension).
The final push in wave (v) could top out at $1.18 to $1.23, which overlaps with the high-confluence zone identified on the daily chart.
This overlap strengthens the likelihood of that range acting as a local top before a larger correction.
RSI shows a rising trend but has formed mild bearish divergence, signaling that wave (iii) may be maturing.
Once wave (v) completes, an ABC correction is expected, potentially taking OP back toward the $0.81–$0.76 region, aligned with Fib supports and wave (iv) of the previous degree.
Only a clean breakout above $1.23 invalidates the corrective outlook and suggests a more aggressive move toward $1.50 or higher.
However, since its recent peak, we have seen signs of weakness, with a lower high after an 18.5% decline.
This leaves the possibility that the recovery from April 7 will be another corrective ABC instead of the expected five-wave count.
If the price falls below the $0.80 region on the current decline, the likelihood of the final downside move to a lower value will be higher, targeting the $0.40 area.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support Zones: $0.767 (0.618 Fib), $0.653 (0.236), $0.580 (macro bottom).
- Resistance Cluster: $1.066–$1.23 (wave (v) completion zone).
- Breakout Target: $1.85 (0.236 macro retracement).
- Correction Risk Zone: $0.81–$0.76 (wave IV support).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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