Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) broke out above $100,000 for the first time since February.
- The BTC price has increased 35% since April 7 without much retracement.
- Can Bitcoin sustain its upward movement and reach a new all-time high?
The Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 30% three months after its all-time high, reaching a low of $74,434 in April.
A significant rally ensued, breaking several resistance levels without retracement, and Bitcoin’s price reached $100,000 today.
The rally’s strength leads to the question: Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high, or will it falter before doing so? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin Price Clears $100,000
The daily time frame analysis shows that Bitcoin’s price has increased rapidly since April 20, breaking from a descending resistance trend line.
While the price initially struggled at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance of $96,400, it broke out this week, reaching a high of $100,000.
Because of the lack of retracement, the increase may be part of the same five-wave upward movement (black).
If so, it is in this increase’s fifth and final wave, after which a correction is likely.
Technical indicators show overbought readings, especially in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is generating a bearish divergence.
Therefore, the BTC price may reach a local top soon and correct.
Nevertheless, the five-wave increase since the lows indicates that the long-term BTC trend is bullish.
What’s The Long-Term Trend?
While the short-term wave count shows an impulsive rally, the long-term one is still undetermined.
Two possibilities are still valid for Bitcoin’s future movement.
The bearish one shows a completed five-wave increase (green), suggesting Bitcoin’s upward movement is over.
The ratio between waves one, three, and five is also textbook. Waves one and five are the same length, while wave three is 1.61 times longer.
Additionally, a bearish divergence in the weekly RSI legitimizes this count.
Alternatively, the bullish count suggests that Bitcoin’s price started the fifth and final wave of its increase in April.
This count has more issues, such as the extreme extension of wave three and the fact that sub-wave four is longer than wave four.
Nevertheless, it is still valid and provides a target of $130,000 for a new Bitcoin price all-time high.
So, while the daily outlook suggests a bullish trend reversal has started, the weekly one illustrates the issues with this possibility and leans toward the Bitcoin market cycle top being in.
Unexpected Bitcoin Rally
The Bitcoin price has rallied over 30% since its April lows without retracement.
Initially deemed a relief rally, the upward movement has been robust and is approaching the all-time high.
While the long-term price analysis does not confirm whether the Bitcoin trend is bullish or bearish, the short-term outlook is positive.
A local top could occur soon, and if the ensuing decline is a corrective rally, it will confirm that new highs are coming.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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