Wagering on papal elections is a tradition roughly as old as the Sistine Chapel, with scholars having found records of betting odds for the papacy as far back as 1503. The conclave that begins Wednesday involves a new twist: It’s the first time that major online prediction markets have turned their focus on the Vatican’s ancient selection process.
And wagers are flowing in. Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy has emerged as the odds-on favorite to succeed Pope Francis, according to the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Even a report last week that the 70-year-old cardinal had medical issues, which the Vatican denied, did little to dent that lead. The other top contenders as of Wednesday morning, according to the betting sites, are Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy.
Prediction markets correctly forecast President Trump’s victory in November, but picking the next heir to St. Peter’s throne is likely to be a tougher challenge, experts on both the Vatican — known as the “vaticanisti” — and elections say.
The wisdom of crowds can go only so far. High-tech betting sites “will never be able to break through the complexity, the unpredictability of the decisions made inside,” said Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican specialist who writes for Il Messaggero, one of Italy’s biggest daily newspapers.
Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College who has studied prediction markets, noted that when it came to the presidential election, bettors were able to process a wide variety of information sources, including public polls and televised debates. The papal conclave — famously conducted behind closed doors and composed of an expected 133 cardinal electors sworn to secrecy — offers far fewer clues for gamblers.
“We can rule out information leakage from cardinals,” Mr. Sethi said.
Conclave politics have been highly unpredictable. In 2013, the odds-on favorite was Cardinal Angelo Scola; Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis, was on few short lists. (That’s a reminder that, as vaticanisti often say: Whoever enters the conclave as pope exits a cardinal.)
This time the cardinals again appear divided, and many are meeting for the first time, factors that could complicate how long it takes before white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel. Once the cardinals are locked inside, their politicking and alliance-building are obscured.
Conclaves often turn on moments out of public view, when “everything can turn upside down in an instant,” said Stefano Maria Paci, a vaticanista for L’Espresso, one of Italy’s most-read weekly newsmagazines.
“I am convinced this is the hardest vote on the planet to forecast,” he added.
That is unlikely to deter online bettors. By Wednesday afternoon, the Kalshi and Polymarket wagers on the outcome of the conclave had exceeded $27 million. By comparison, the Super Bowl drew $27 million in bets on Kalshi alone.
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