This late in the European soccer season, it’s pretty easy to get distracted. Title hunts are wrapping up, and the din of the Transfer Rumor Industrial Complex is only growing louder. This sport’s obsession with focusing on the future over the present isn’t its most appealing quality, but the future was unimportant this week. It’s Champions League semifinal week, and we got a couple of absolute classics.
On Tuesday, PSG got an early goal from Ousmane Dembélé and weathered a midgame onslaught from Arsenal to take a 1-0 lead back to Paris. On Wednesday, Inter and Barcelona put on one of the most entertaining games of the season, with Inter taking two different leads and nearly snagging a third, but heading back to the San Siro with a 3-3 draw.
Let’s relive two classics and talk about what’s in store for next week’s second legs.
Editor’s note: We’ll update this file with Thursday’s UEFA Europa League analysis (Athletic Club vs. Manchester United, Tottenham vs. Bodo/Glimt) and UEFA Europa Conference League analysis (Djurgardens vs. Chelsea, Real Betis vs. Fiorentina) to set up those second-legs as well.
Barcelona 3, Inter Milan 3
Second leg: Tuesday in Milan
For years, soccer seemed defined by the Pep Guardiola “principle of control” — You can score and have fun against lesser teams, but against the best teams, you must obsessively control the ball to make sure your opponent cannot do anything with it. (Even if it means you don’t either.) Shot totals go down, and the war of attrition begins.
Barca boss Hansi Flick seems to believe in the opposite approach. In the biggest moments and biggest matches, Flick seems to seek less control. When in doubt, loosen the reins and assume your team will handle the ensuing chaos better than the opponent.
1:09
Marcotti: Inter Milan were brave vs. Barcelona
Gab Marcotti praises Inter Milan’s “brave” performance away at Barcelona in their UCL semifinal first leg game vs. Barcelona.
Fair to say that it’s worked pretty incredibly for Barcelona in 2024-25. They’ve won the Copa del Rey and Spanish SuperCopa, they’re leading LaLiga by four points with five games to play, and they’ve beaten Real Madrid three times. They’re the most watchable team in Europe, and they only become more watchable in their biggest games.
They scored 12 goals in those three wins over Real Madrid. Their Champions League quarterfinal win over Borussia Dortmund featured eight combined goals over 180 minutes. They snapped a winter funk in LaLiga with a 7-1 win over Valencia, and in maybe the only match of 2024-25 more entertaining than Wednesday’s battle with Inter, they drew 4-4 with Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey semifinals.
Off the pitch, Barcelona are a constant warning sign for everything wrong with modern soccer: financial mismanagement (and an equal resistance of spending controls), an endless obsession with winning the transfer rumor game, enthusiastic support for a European Super League. But on the pitch this season, they are a walking advertisement for everything beautiful about the game. And a lot of that beauty comes from an utterly impossible 17-year-old.
Lamine Yamal was the best player on the pitch in his first-ever Champions League semifinal game, scoring once, hitting the post twice and racking up ball progression stats that matched nearly Inter’s entire team. In the 87th minute, he dinked the post with a lobbed shot that I would have assumed was an accident coming from anyone else.
Against an Inter team that had allowed five goals in its first 12 Champions League matches this season, Barcelona might have matched that with a couple of friendlier bounces off the post. And yet, this astoundingly mature and resilient Inter team matched Barca punch for punch. They scored twice in the game’s first 22 minutes, created chances from set pieces exactly as they needed to, and slowed down the flow of the ball to Yamal in the second half. They took another lead in the 63rd minute, and after a cannon-shot from Raphinha — a major Ballon d’Or contender this year and, without doubt, the second-best winger on his own team — tied the game once more, Inter was a millimeter offside in a goal that would have given them the lead again.
Barca’s magic was on full display, but they could still only come away with a home draw. They must win at the San Siro next week to advance to their first Champions League final in a decade.
Telling stats from the first leg
• Shot attempts: Barcelona 19, Inter 7
• Shot attempts worth more than 0.10 xG: Inter 4 (2 goals), Barcelona 1 (1 goal)
Barcelona give you almost no margin for error, pinning you near your goal and forcing you to counterattack beautifully to create chances. But Inter were up for the challenge. It’s a strange thing to say about a match in which they allowed three goals, but Inter defended beautifully, allowing only one shot worth over 0.1 xG all match (Ferran Torres‘ game-tying goal in the 38th minute was worth 0.56 xG).
Meanwhile, though they only managed seven shot attempts to Barca’s 19, Inter also attempted four of the five most high-value shots of the evening and put two of them in the net. Denzel Dumfries scored twice on corners (xG: 0.25 on the first one, 0.07 on the second) and when combined with Marcus Thuram‘s goal at the end of a gorgeous opening sequence, it was enough to earn a draw.
MARCUS THURAM WITH AN INSANE FINISH AFTER JUST 30 SECONDS 💥😮💨 pic.twitter.com/6QL27zoPb8
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 30, 2025
Barca created more chances and were skilled enough to score twice on low-value attempts. But all three of Inter’s goals were from short range.
• Blocked shots: Inter 5, Barca 1
Barca throws so many attacks at you that you’re probably going to have to throw your body in the way of quite a few of them. Inter did so.
• xG from open play: Barca 1.25, Inter 0.38
• Offsides: Inter 5, Barca 0
Barcelona’s high defensive line, maybe the single most brazen part of their playing style, mostly held up. They invite you to counter-attack and Inter was willing to try, but 13 counters created just one shot attempt, and Inter created very little in open-play situations. They needed to win the set-piece battle to offset that. And they did so.
• xG from set pieces: Inter 0.39 (2 goals), Barca 0.14 (1 goal)
Dumfries scored twice on corners, and Barca’s third and final goal came from Raphinha’s 25-meter strike (xg: 0.03) that banked off of both the post and Sommer.
A GOAL A PIECE IN UNDER TWO MINUTES 🤯
DON’T TAKE YOUR EYES OFF THIS GAME FOR A SECOND 🍿 pic.twitter.com/mHr5N9O28B
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 30, 2025
That the teams scored a combined three goals from set-piece shots worth 0.5 xG was certainly unlikely, but Inter created more from set pieces and deserved the scoring advantage here.
First-leg MVP: Lamine Yamal, Barcelona
His 23 progressive carries were the most in the game and only four fewer than all of Inter managed. He attempted 10 1v1s, and Inter attempted 13. His 46 completed passes were worth 0.30 expected assists (xA), most of any player in the game. Oh yeah, and then there was the whole “scored once and hit the post twice” thing.
17-YEAR-OLD LAMINE YAMAL JUST COOKED ON HIS 100TH BARCA APPEARANCE 🤯 pic.twitter.com/dhWmTDr10O
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 30, 2025
At 17, you’re supposed to be an idiot. It’s your right. Even if you are blessed with prodigious talent, you are supposed to be unready for the big moments. You’re supposed to lose your fundamentals at iffy times. Your brain is supposed to go too fast for your body (or vice versa). You aren’t supposed to do any of the things that come so naturally to Yamal. He not only sees things he’s not supposed to see, but he’s relaxed enough to almost look casual while turning the vision into reality.
Inter really did slow him down in the second half — he had 58 touches and 15 progressive carries in the first half, 44 and eight in the second — but his 100th appearance for Barca was still one of his best. He’s unreal: just ask the Inter boss, Simone Inzaghi.
Second-most valuable player: Denzel Dumfries, Inter
When you score a brace in a Champions League semifinal (with an assist as well), you deserve mention regardless, but the goals were almost of secondary importance compared to everything else Dumfries did. If Inter did anything progressive in attack, it went through the 29-year old.
Dumfries assisted Thuram’s opening goal and was responsible for 17 of Inter’s 71 touches in the attacking third. Thuram had just six, and the combination of Lautaro Martínez (who went off injured at halftime) and Mehdi Taremi combined for four. Simone Inzaghi wasn’t going to overcommit numbers in attack, but Inter still scored three goals because of Dumfries.
Prediction: Barca advance
Current ESPN BET odds (Barca -160 to advance, Inter +115) give Barca the equivalent of about a 57% chance to advance to the final. If they were to be eliminated from this competition before the final, it was always going to be an Inter-type of team — experienced, clinical, strong in counter-attacking — to do the job. And they very well could. They faced waves of attacks from Bayern in the quarterfinals and had a perfect counterpunch ready each time, and they’ll have a home crowd behind them.
However, for as beautiful as Wednesday’s back-and-forth was, it also clearly showed how small Inter’s margin for error is. They scored three times from shots worth just 0.8 xG, and if Martinez cannot go in the second leg, the margin for error shrinks further. A glorious first leg deserves an equally awesome second leg; we’ll see what they have in store.
0:57
Can Arsenal come from behind vs. PSG in the UCL?
Gab & Juls preview the Champions semifinal second leg between PSG and Arsenal.
Arsenal 0, Paris Saint-Germain 1
Second leg: Wednesday in Paris
PSG takes a lead back to Paris thanks to an early goal from Ousmane Dembele and some poor mid-game converting from Arsenal.
OUSMANE DEMBÉLÉ STUNS THE EMIRATES AFTER JUST 3 MINUTES AND 16 SECONDS 💥😤 pic.twitter.com/jLQXQmMk8B
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 29, 2025
After early dominance from PSG, Arsenal took control in the middle of the match, attempting seven shots worth 1.6 xG between minutes 38-56. But Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves in this span, and Gabriel Martinelli couldn’t quite get on the end of a golden opportunity — albeit one that would have likely been flagged for offside — late in the first half. The Gunners thought they had evened up the match on a glorious, misdirection-heavy free kick in the second minute of the second half, but scorer Mikel Merino was offside, and the goal was disallowed.
Arsenal withered late, attempting just two shots in the final half-hour, and PSG had two huge chances to add to their lead, but Bradley Barcola narrowly missed from 11 meters in the 84th minute (xG: 0.34), and Gonçalo Ramos hit the post from 12 meters in the 85th (xG: 0.37).
Telling stats from the first leg
• Shots from set pieces: Arsenal 2 (0.19 xG), PSG 1 (0.06 xG). Merino’s disallowed goal came on a free kick as well. This was considered a major potential advantage for Arsenal, because of both their own set-piece prowess and their height advantage over PSG. It almost worked out for them, and it could be a determining factor in the second leg as well.
• Offsides: Arsenal 4, PSG 1. Had Martinelli scored in the 39th minute, that would have ended up a fifth offside for Arsenal. PSG’s high defensive line, such a vital piece of their overall gameplan, held up.
First 35 minutes:
• Combined progressive passes and carries: PSG 38, Arsenal 26
• Possession rate: PSG 67%, Arsenal 33%
• Shot attempts: PSG 6 (0.30 xG), Arsenal 1 (0.03)
After about 20 minutes, this looked destined to become a blowout. Arsenal couldn’t control the ball, and they couldn’t even slightly rein in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the left wing. They started getting their footing around the 20-minute mark, but still couldn’t create any sort of threat over the 15 minutes that followed.
Last 55 minutes:
• Combined progressive passes and carries: Arsenal 68, PSG 31
• Possession rate: Arsenal 59%, PSG 41%
• Shot attempts: Arsenal 9 (1.65 xG), PSG 5 (0.85 xG)
From about the 35- to 60-minute mark Arsenal dominated, attempting seven shots worth 1.55 xG — granted, 0.8 was credited to a Martinelli attempt that he barely connected with and would have been disallowed — while PSG attempted zero shots. Arsenal continued to control the ball from that point forward, but PSG began generating far more danger from counterattacks than Arsenal could from its open-play attack.
In the end, both teams likely came away with regrets: Arsenal for not evening the score in the middle of the game and PSG for not nabbing a second goal late. We’ll see who has the strongest regrets after next week.
Total possessions: 71 each. This was a uniquely intense match played at a languid tempo. Both teams pressed and attempted to allow the smallest amount of space on the ball, but in the end both teams barely cracked 70 possessions. Honestly, that makes Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s accomplishments even more impressive.
First-leg MVP: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG)
The nifty Georgian international provided the match’s only assist and attempted three shots (all of pretty low value), but that doesn’t even begin to tell the tale of Kvaratskhelia’s dominance. “Kvaradona” led PSG in both progressive carries (10) and defensive interventions (17, including 10 in the final 30 minutes). That’s something a center-back is supposed to do. Plus, he probably deserved a penalty for splitting three defenders (but going down a little too easily) in the first half as well.
Should this have been a penalty for a foul on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia? 👀 pic.twitter.com/0GgwdQ9aVY
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) April 29, 2025
In his first Champions League semifinal match, he was both a terrifying creator and a relentless presser, and he was by far the best player on the pitch.
Where Arsenal must improve to come back
After weathering the early storm, Arsenal will head to Paris with some level of hope. They indeed found advantages in set pieces that they can hope to exploit next week, and even with PSG’s late chances they were the superior team over the final 55 minutes of the match. But it’s pretty telling that I have yet to mention Bukayo Saka.
PSG was able to render the Gunners’ best attacker almost anonymous. Saka managed just one shot, and it was a pretty speculative effort from 25 meters out. He did solid work in the ball progression game — nine progressive carries, 4-for-7 on 1-on-1s, all of which came after those disheveled first 20 minutes — but if Arsenal actually generated a threat, it likely came from Martinelli and Leandro Trossard, who combined for six of Arsenal’s 10 shot attempts and all three of their most dangerous ones.
Aside from a set-piece jackpot, it’s hard to see Arsenal winning this tie if Saka isn’t more involved in the box.
1:43
Burley: Odegaard not doing enough in the big games
Craig Burley reacts to Martin Odegaard’s performance for Arsenal in their 1-0 defeat to PSG in the Champions League semifinal first leg.
Prediction: PSG advances
Based on the current ESPN BET lines (PSG -550, Arsenal +320), PSG has about a 78% chance of reaching the final. This makes perfect sense considering (a) they’ll be defending a lead at home and (b) they’ve probably been the best team in Europe since December. In their last 10 Champions League matches, they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 28-8, and they’ve now won at both Liverpool and Arsenal. This is an absolutely dynamite team.
However, they only showed best-in-Europe form for about a quarter of the proceedings on Tuesday, and their overall form hasn’t been quite as flawless of late; they did, after all, give up three goals (and nearly a big lead) against Aston Villa, and they’ve taken just one point from their last two league matches. Arsenal found their legs and nearly created the set-piece advantages they were hoping for. They will give themselves a chance to do what the Arsenal women did last weekend: overcome a deficit against a brilliant team in France. It’s just hard to actually predict them to do it.
