Key Takeaways
- TRUMP broke out from a prolonged corrective downtrend structure.
- A short-term triangle suggests that a breakout or pullback is imminent.
- Overall bias remains bullish above the $11.76 support zone.
Official Trump (TRUMP) has broken out from a long-term descending channel after completing a complex corrective W-X-Y structure.
The breakout triggered a sharp impulsive rally, but now the price consolidates below key resistance.
Short-term Elliott Wave structures suggest that TRUMP is either nearing the completion of wave (v) or is setting up for another extension higher before a larger correction unfolds.
TRUMP Price Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, TRUMP completed a W-X-Y complex corrective structure, finding a major bottom around $7.26 on April 7.
After this low, a powerful, impulsive breakout followed through multiple resistance zones with strong volume.
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The rally stalled near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the larger previous downtrend, around $17.
TRUMP is consolidating between $14 and $17.5, forming a tight range after the vertical rally.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled down from overbought levels, but remains elevated, suggesting underlying bullish pressure remains intact.
The broader structure still looks bullish, as the breakout was clean, but a corrective pullback toward $13–$12 cannot be ruled out before a larger continuation move.
The key pivot level for maintaining the bullish bias is $12.78 (the 0.382 Fib retracement from the breakout move).
A confirmed breakout above $16 could open targets toward the next major Fib levels around $7.45, corresponding to the 0.786 retracement of the bear cycle.
TRUMP Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart reveals a completed or nearly completed five-wave impulsive structure, with the current consolidation resembling a possible triangle in wave (iv).
Since its recent high around $16, we saw a pullback but another upturn of 9.5%.
This could be the start of its final upward advancement, but the price is still in a lower high, leaving the possibility of it being part of a corrective structure.
Two short-term scenarios emerge.
Immediate breakout: If wave (iv) has already completed, TRUMP could surge from here, pushing beyond $16.09 toward $17.65 (0.786 extension) and possibly above $18.
Deeper retracement first: If the triangle breaks down, a correction toward $14.00 (0.236 retracement) or $12.78 (0.382 retracement) could occur, offering a better re-entry before the final wave (v) thrust upward.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart is neutral, providing enough room for either an impulsive continuation or a pullback.
In addition, bearish divergence has been observed since the April 23 spike, with a gradual decrease while the price maintains an upward trajectory. This indicates a weakening momentum.
The bias remains bullish as long as TRUMP holds above $11.76. A decisive break below this level would suggest a deeper correction is unfolding.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $14.00 (0.236 Fib), $12.78 (0.382 Fib), $11.76 (0.5 Fib).
- Immediate Resistance: $16.09 (local high), $17.45 (0.382 Fib from macro cycle).
- Breakout Confirmation: Break above $16.09–$17.45 with volume confirms wave (v) extension.
- Invalidation Level: Drop below $11.76 would invalidate bullish impulse count.
- Fractal Watch Zone: $17.65–$18.00 (potential wave (v) extension target).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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