Key Takeaways
- MELANIA broke out of a multi-month downtrend channel.
- A five-wave impulse is completed; correction is likely near the final leg.
- The short-term correction is still unfolding as the price has lost 16%.
MELANIA has recently completed a significant breakout from a prolonged downtrend and is now undergoing a corrective pullback after a sharp 26% rally.
With the macro trend potentially reversing and short-term Fibonacci levels in play, a continuation setup is possible.
However, there is also a chance that the upward spike was a temporary reaction to yesterday’s announcement of an exclusive dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump.
MELANIA Price Analysis
After a relentless multi-month downtrend from a high of $12.31 within a descending channel, MELANIA broke above the upper trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal.
This breakout was confirmed as the price surged from a low of $0.368, with strong bullish momentum leading to a local high near $0.527.
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The breakout occurred after an extended W-X-Y corrective structure, with the ‘Y’ wave bottoming out just above $0.36.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart hit overbought levels above 75, indicating short-term exhaustion, which explains the current retracement.
However, the structure favors a bullish continuation as long as the price holds above the $0.368-$0.403 support zone.
Particularly above the descending channel’s upper boundary, now turned into support.
Volume surged during the breakout, adding further confirmation to the bullish shift.
If momentum resumes after the pullback, the midterm structure suggests MELANIA may target the next significant resistance at $0.642.
A sustained move above this could open up a move toward $1. area.
On the other hand, we saw a large wick above $0.488, indicating seller pressure.
This could be interpreted as a sign of weakness and cause another downturn, leading to lower values.
MELANIA Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, MELANIA has completed a clear five-wave impulse followed by an ongoing A-B-C corrective structure.
Wave (v) peaked at $0.527, after which the correction began.
Wave (a) dropped price toward $0.43, and a weak wave (b) bounce failed to regain momentum.
Another downturn led to a lower low, implying a likely continuation lower toward the $0.40 area at the 0.618 Fib or 0.786.
RSI showed bearish divergence at the peak (highlighted in orange), signaling waning momentum and aligning with the current down move.
The correction appears controlled and structured, suggesting a wave (c) is still underway.
Should it complete at the confluence of the 0.786 Fib level and former resistance-turned-support ($0.368), it may mark the low before a new impulse begins.
A bullish reversal from that level could form the base for a larger degree wave three or C, depending on whether the overall move is motive or corrective.
The projected bounce could potentially revisit $0.48 and then $0.527, eventually expanding toward $0.642 if broader market sentiment supports it.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $0.430 (0.618 Fib), $0.403 (0.786 Fib), $0.368 (1.0 Fib and previous resistance).
- Immediate Resistance: $0.488 (0.236 Fib), $0.527 (local high), $0.642 (channel breakout target).
- Breakout Confirmation: Break above $0.527 with substantial volume confirms continuation.
- Invalidation Level: Drop below $0.368 invalidates the bullish continuation structure.
- Fractal Watch Zone: $1.23 – $1.32 (previous central support-turned-resistance zone from February).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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