Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is revisiting the same bottom levels it hit during the 2024 cycle.
- CryptoQuant data suggests the market may be setting up for a rebound, mirroring last year’s recovery pattern.
- As BTC struggles, gold continues to hit all-time highs, challenging Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.
After months of choppy action and fading momentum, the crypto market looks eerily similar to where it stood during the 2024 cycle.
According to a new report from CryptoQuant , current trading patterns and investor behavior are tracking closely with last year’s correction, just before Bitcoin (BTC) found its footing and rallied again.
The 2024 cycle was marked by heavy speculation, rapid gains, and eventually, a sharp pullback. Now, that same rhythm appears to be playing out once more.
A Familiar Setup for a Potential Rebound
One of the key signals in CryptoQuant’s analysis is the behavior of short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for one week to one month. Historically, spikes in this group tend to coincide with overheated markets and looming corrections.
During the latest cycle, this metric once again surged as prices climbed, and has now cooled off after two major local tops, mirroring 2024’s trajectory almost beat for beat.
According to the data, the correction phase may be winding down. While timing a reversal is never exact, CryptoQuant suggests the market has likely flushed out much of the speculative heat, and a rebound could be on the horizon.
The market data indicates that the period of overheating is now resolved. Although we may need to wait a little longer, with the progress of macroeconomic issues, 2025 is likely to show a positive movement.
The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin vs. Gold
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s path over the past year has been anything but smooth. After the April 2024 halving, BTC climbed steadily for five months, peaking near $109,000 shortly after Donald Trump took office. But that rally was followed by a sharp decline—dropping 30% to a low of $74,500.
Currently hovering around $84,500, Bitcoin has traded mostly sideways over the past few months, showing little conviction in either direction.
Adding to the uncertainty, BTC recently fell below its 200-day moving average, a long-trusted signal of long-term trend shifts. Investor confidence has clearly taken a hit.
Meanwhile, gold has stolen the spotlight. As inflation concerns and macro uncertainty continue, gold prices have surged to new all-time highs—casting doubt on Bitcoin’s status as a reliable hedge.
What Comes Next?
While short-term signals are beginning to hint at a turnaround, broader on-chain metrics remain mixed. And with macro headwinds still blowing strong, the crypto market’s recovery story isn’t guaranteed.
Still, if history repeats—and CryptoQuant’s comparison holds up—the current lull might be setting the stage for another leg up. It’s not the first time Bitcoin has been written off, and it probably won’t be the last.
Was this Article helpful?
