I fully admit that most of my 2024-25 NHL preseason predictions were a waste of pixels: a collection of bad calls, faulty logic and the bold prediction that the Buffalo Sabres would make the playoffs — which should qualify me for some sort of cognitive examination.
But I got something right: The two teams I predicted would battle in the Stanley Cup Final are part of the 2025 NHL postseason bracket. However, after 82 games of data, results and analysis, I’ve decided to punt on one of those picks while remaining ride-or-die on the other one — most likely to my detriment, given their current predicament.
Here is how the Stanley Cup playoffs will play out, from the opening round through the last game of the Final. I apologize in advance for spoiling the next two months for you, as obviously all of this is going to happen exactly to script and none of these picks will be incorrect.
Let’s all enjoy the best postseason in sports together, no matter how it goes.
Eastern Conference first round
I remember talking to Brady Tkachuk before the 4 Nations Face-Off about the prospect of Ottawa facing Toronto in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, when the Maple Leafs won the Battle of Ontario for the fourth time in four playoff meetings between the franchises.
“I think it’d be fun and awesome,” he told me. “It doesn’t really matter who you play; it’s just about getting there and it’s about the process of getting there.”
I could tell Brady was holding back a bit to keep the focus on a playoff berth the Senators were still chasing. But you could feel the enthusiasm, especially when we discussed how much Ottawa fans relish the chance to finally get one over on their Original Six neighbors.
Anyone who watched the 4 Nations Face-Off understands that Brady Tkachuk will meet the moment, with his stick or with his fists. This is the first time he’ll attend a Stanley Cup playoff game as something more than a spectator for his brother’s games, and his sheer willpower is going to make a difference in this series. But he can’t do it alone, and the overall offensive weaponry on this Senators team isn’t enough to really scare the Leafs — Ottawa was 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes since the 4 Nations break.
To beat Toronto, an opponent needs to put some fear and doubt in the Leafs. That was easy for a team like Boston, who basically just had to step on the ice to get in their heads. But the Maple Leafs inherently know that the Senators are not on their level. They don’t have goal scorers like William Nylander (45) or Auston Matthews (33), or many point producers on the level of Mitch Marner (102 points) or John Tavares (74 in 75 games). Toronto should be fairly confident that its back end, bolstered at the deadline with the addition of Boston defender Brandon Carlo, will be able to withstand Ottawa’s attack, so long as goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll hold up their end of the bargain.
No, there’s only one person who can make the Leafs start seeing ghosts of playoff disasters past, and that’s Linus Ullmark.
Ullmark does not have what you’d call a stellar playoff track record: 3-6 record and .887 save percentage, all with the Bruins. But Leafs fans can quote chapter and verse the times an opposing goalie has shattered their playoff dreams, most recently Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky playing to a Vezina-winning form in 2023. The probability that Ullmark can be that guy is slim based on his playoff history … but it’s the Leafs in the playoffs. Every conceivable disappointment is on the table.
Although not necessarily in this round.
Winner: The Maple Leafs eliminate the Senators in five games.
I did Stanley Cup playoff watchability rankings on our postseason preview edition of “The Drop.” The Dallas vs. Colorado series topped the rankings, because it’s hard to compete with soap operatic storylines such as the Mikko Rantanen revenge tour and Gabriel Landeskog’s years-long injury comeback. But right behind it was the Battle of Florida. It’s the most compelling series in the Eastern Conference, a meeting of established rivals and — potentially — the launch pad for a Stanley Cup finalist.
I acknowledge that we’ve yet to see this version of the Panthers at full capacity, which means we have yet to see the kind of havoc a line of Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk can wreak on opponents. (One word, Bolts players: earplugs.) Florida hasn’t had Aaron Ekblad since he was suspended 20 games for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program. The earliest he can return is Game 3 against Tampa Bay.
What the Panthers have shown us in making the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive seasons is that their core is built for the postseason. Their best players have the attributes that teams are constantly seeking at the trade deadline annually — they’re clutch, defensively responsible, nasty and constantly meeting the moment. They beat the Lightning in five games last season. But I think the Panthers’ supporting cast has gotten a little thinner, especially on the blue line, while the Lightning have bolstered theirs year over year.
Was there a more low-key outstanding offseason addition than the Lightning reacquiring Ryan McDonagh? His veteran presence at 5-on-5 helped turn what coach Jon Cooper called a “mediocre” defensive team into fourth best in the NHL this season. Running it back with center Yanni Gourde — a key player in the Bolts’ Stanley Cup winners, acquired from Seattle in trade — was also smart.
Besides those two, there are two other points of demarcation from the last Battle of Florida. One is Jake Guentzel, who scored 41 goals on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. He has 67 points in his last 69 playoff games, which is absurd. The other is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is back to playing like a Vezina Trophy winner. He was below replacement level in the past two postseasons. He seems ready to reclaim the mantle as the best playoff goalie since Martin Brodeur.
“Battle” is probably an understatement when it comes to this series. Two potential Stanley Cup winners. Two heated rivals, stacked with talent. The Panthers winning would not surprise me in the least. But I’m going with the Bolts here. As Cooper said recently, there have been plenty of people claiming their time as a championship contender has passed. This series is the start of their second act.
Winner: The Lightning eliminate the Panthers in seven games.
I covered the 2010 Canadiens’ upset of the Capitals, whose legacy has been evoked a lot since this matchup was set. There are some interesting similarities: The Capitals at the top of the conference, the Canadiens as the lowest seed. Montreal even added a dynamic, invigorating rookie late in both seasons: P.K. Subban then, Ivan Demidov now.
Neither Canadiens team was given much of a chance against the mighty Capitals. Both teams entered the postseason with a negative goal differential and few expectations. The latter point should scare the Capitals a bit in this series: A team with boundless enthusiasm and zero expectations that is too young to feel the crush of playoff pressure can be a recipe for an upset.
But the Capitals aren’t that team from 2010, either. Those Caps were emotionally fragile, playing in an arena where the tension was palpable any time postseason adversity hit. Questions about their roster and manner of play manifested in a crisis of conscience in the franchise when Montreal upset them in Game 7. It would take years for Washington to find its swagger again.
These Capitals take their cue from coach Spencer Carbery, a shrewd and stabilizing presence behind the bench; and Alex Ovechkin on the other end of the emotional spectrum, who can still rally his team with one snipe from the Ovi spot.
There’s a lot of disrespect toward the Capitals despite their record, from the lack of star depth behind Ovechkin to some questions about how good this team really is when you look under the hood. But assuming they continue to get solid goaltending — and hopefully Logan Thompson is healthy enough to make a difference there — Washington is a fundamentally better hockey team than Montreal and will win this series. But congratulations to the Canadiens for the valuable experience they’ll gain and for not stumbling over their own skates into the abyss like every other Eastern Conference wild-card contender eventually did.
Winner: The Capitals eliminate the Canadiens in five games.
The Hurricanes are vulnerable here.
Their 5-on-5 goaltending since the 4 Nations Face-Off ranks 23rd in the NHL, while their expected goals against per 60 minutes ranked 14th. There are still hallmarks of Rod Brind’Amour’s previous Carolina contenders on this squad: the puck possession, the grinding game and a penalty kill that ranked first overall in the NHL.
This group also generates chances at a pretty good clip, leading the league in expected goals since 4 Nations. That they’re only ninth in that span in actual 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes underscores how the Canes have trouble finishing their chances. Which, come to think of it, is why Carolina traded for Jake Guentzel last season and had Mikko Rantanen for a bit this season before shipping him off to sign an eight-year deal in Dallas.
Brind’Amour’s teams are perpetually seeking that one key goal in a key spot to turn the tide in a series, and then not getting it. There’s a reason Carolina’s ceiling has been the conference finals under this coach. Management tried to solve that problem twice in two seasons. But the Hurricanes enter this postseason without that veteran goal-scoring answer.
Carolina being vulnerable does not mean that the Devils can necessarily take advantage. It shouldn’t be asking a lot for a playoff-qualifying team to be able to put together four good games in a seven-game stretch, but New Jersey hasn’t really been able to do that since December. Even before they lost Jack Hughes to injury for the season, the Devils didn’t have a winning streak of more than three straight games. After Hughes went out with a shoulder injury on March 2, the Devils had two three-game winning streaks and three three-game losing streaks. The only thing consistent about them has been their inconsistency.
Could they pull an upset? Sure. Dougie Hamilton is healthy. Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and especially Jesper Bratt have stepped up in Hughes’ absence, keeping one of the league’s best power plays cranked up. If Jacob Markstrom is above-average and can put together four good games, they can win the series. Unfortunately, too often he has been a goalie who puts together two good games and then gives up seven in his next start.
This matchup is more of a toss-up than anyone’s giving it credit for being, but ultimately, the Devils will be left to wonder how high they could have climbed with a healthy Jack Hughes.
Winner: The Hurricanes eliminate the Devils in six games.
Eastern Conference second round
As previously mentioned, the only way one can defeat the Maple Leafs in the postseason is to create enough doubt and frustration so they defeat themselves.
The Lightning are 1-1 in recent series against the Leafs. Andrei Vasilevskiy didn’t have a save percentage over .900 in either of them. He’ll be the difference here in putting Tampa Bay back into the conference finals for the first time since 2022 while making Leafs fans go from stressing about the playoffs to stressing about Mitch Marner’s pending free agency again.
Winner: Lightning eliminate the Leafs in six games.
The Hurricanes stall out in the conference semifinals, once again unable to find that extra bit of offense as the Capitals push through thanks to their advantage in goal and underrated supporting cast. Home-ice advantage ends up being the difference in a tightly played battle of a series that ends with Washington finally getting its flowers as part of the final four teams.
Winner: Capitals eliminate the Hurricanes in seven games.
Eastern Conference finals
Can a coaching battle be the marquee matchup in a playoff series? Spencer Carbery vs. Jon Cooper is as good as it gets, with two great unorthodox hockey minds trying to outwit each other.
In the end, the Capitals can’t contain the strength of the Lightning’s top two lines and fall one step short of sending Alex Ovechkin back to the Stanley Cup Final. Hopefully he can find solace in that whole “becoming the greatest goal scorer in hockey history” thing from earlier this season.
Winner: Lightning eliminate Capitals in six games.
Western Conference first round
Look, the Presidents’ Trophy Curse is real. Heavy is the head that wears the regular-season crown. Since the trophy’s introduction in 1985-86, only eight teams that finished first overall have won the Stanley Cup. Seven teams lost in the first round. The wild-card format has only amplified the bad juju: Since 2013-14, no Presidents’ Trophy-winning team has even made the Stanley Cup Final, let alone won it.
That’s why I’ve loved Winnipeg’s mindset this season. Please recall the Jets’ start, becoming the first NHL team to win 15 of its first 16 games. But they’ve come to understand that regular-season accomplishment means nothing if it doesn’t ultimately help a team thrive in the postseason. The Jets rode into the past two postseasons feeling that success was assumed based on what they did in the previous 82 games. Against Vegas in 2023 and Colorado in 2024, they were flushed from the playoffs after five games.
“It’s why we’re not over the top, living the high life right now, because we know what happened last year,” said Scott Arniel, who has played psychologist in his first season as head coach. “I don’t think the Stanley Cup’s ever been handed out in November.”
Because of the Curse and the Jets’ recent playoff stumbles, I expect a good portion of the hockey punditry to pick the Blues in an upset here. That’s a reasonable take, given that unbeatable 12-game stretch for St. Louis after the 4 Nations Face-Off that propelled them into the playoffs. The Blues were the second-best offensive and defensive team at 5-on-5 during the streak. We’ve seen plenty of teams that caught fire late in the season roll to first-round underdog wins.
I just don’t see it here.
The Jets have two advantages here that could determine the series. The first is their power play, which ranked first in the league this season (28.9%). The Blues had the 28th-ranked penalty kill (74.2%). Cam Charron, now a data analyst for the Pittsburgh Penguins, noted in a 2023 article that “there are at least 0.4 power plays per game more than expected in the first four games of the first round.” While Winnipeg will miss Nikolaj Ehlers, who is their fifth-leading power play scorer and currently “week to week” with an injury, their special teams advantage here is still palpable.
The other advantage is Connor Hellebuyck, who should win his second straight Vezina Trophy this season. That’s no slight to the Blues’ Jordan Binnington, who showed how he answers the bell in pressure situations for Team Canada at 4 Nations, and had a .910 save percentage in 17 games after that tournament. But he’s not Hellebuyck. No one is.
The Jets goalie led the NHL in every traditional stat (min. 35 games) and also ended up leading the NHL in goals saved above expected, per Stathletes. His numbers in the last two playoff eliminations were embarrassing. As we saw in 4 Nations, Hellebuyck is as locked in as ever and ready to prove his “best in the world” status goes beyond the accolades he has earned.
According to Betalytics, the Jets have a 59% chance of winning this series. If Hellebuyck plays like he did last postseason, that drops to 50.8% in favor of St. Louis. That’s how important he is to the Jets and this series.
Respect to the Blues for streaking their way into the playoffs with the Calgary Flames and others on their heels. But in their last 25 games, they shot 12.5% at 5-on-5. The rest of the season, they shot 8.8%. St. Louis scored 3.19 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the streak against an expected goals per game of 2.28, which was 27th during that span. Maybe that heater continues. I’m guessing it wanes. Give me the goalie, the power play and the fear of further postseason embarrassment.
Winner: The Jets eliminate the Blues in five games.
I picked the Stars to win the Stanley Cup before the season. I’m ride-or-die with that choice. Am I confident about this pick at the moment? Not in the least.
The Stars are missing their top defenseman Miro Heiskanen against a team with Nathan MacKinnon on it. That’s not ideal. It was expected he might miss the entire first round with a knee injury that’s kept him out since Jan. 28, but there have been some rumblings out of Dallas that he could return to face the Avalanche some point. Or so Stars fans hope.
They’re also missing Jason Robertson, who injured his knee in game No. 82. The Stars’ second-leading scorer will miss at least the start of this series. Again, not ideal!
Luckily, Dallas might be able to overcome these losses because the Stars absolutely rolled into the playoffs … wait, what was that? Dallas was winless in seven games and outscored 34-18. Very much not ideal!
So I remain on the Stars with my heart and not my head, because unless they get healthy fast and receive some series thievery from Jake Oettinger, they could be in trouble here. Unless, of course, this is the Mikko Rantanen Revenge Series.
Please recall the Avalanche opting not to meet his asking price on a new contract and then shocking Rantanen with a trade to the Hurricanes. They didn’t want to hand him the elephantine contract he was asking for, in part because they felt they could find another player who could post great offensive numbers next to MacKinnon for a much lower cost. To that end: Martin Necas, acquired from Carolina for Rantanen, had 28 points in 30 games at a fraction of the cost.
Rantanen was eventually traded by the Hurricanes to the Stars when it became apparent that he wouldn’t sign an extension in Carolina. He immediately inked one with Dallas (eight years, $96 million) and, as playoff formats would have it, Rantanen now has the opportunity to rub it in his former team’s face that it made a colossal error in letting him go.
This would easily be the most soap operatic storyline of the series … were it not for Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog returning to competitive play for the first time since hoisting the Cup on June 26, 2022. The star forward worked his way back from injuries and surgery to officially become an option for coach Jared Bednar against Dallas. The emotional lift the Avalanche will get if and when he returns to the lineup can’t be quantified.
Few teams have been as aggressive as Colorado in remaking their lineup this season. It started when GM Chris MacFarland nuked his goaltending, sending Alexandar Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks for Mackenzie Blackwood, who’s been outstanding. Along with Necas, the Avalanche added Islanders jack-of-all-trades Brock Nelson, Rangers defensive defenseman Ryan Lindgren and Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle before the deadline. They surround MacKinnon and Norris Trophy favorite Cale Makar, as good a nucleus as you’ll find in the NHL.
It’s entirely possible the team that wins this series eventually wins the Stanley Cup. And since I have Dallas winning the Stanley Cup, well …
Again, I’m not entirely thrilled with the trajectory of things at the moment. Fade this stubborn, illogical pick. I’m begging you.
Winner: The Stars eliminate the Avalanche in seven games.
I recently asked someone who knows this Wild team pretty well if they believed there was a chance for Minnesota to upset the Golden Knights. Their deep, nuanced response was “LOL.”
There was a part of me that thought Minnesota might have a shot here. It is finally healthy again after getting star forward Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back. The vibes are great after the Wild clinched a playoff berth in their last game of the season. Heck, we might even get Marc-Andre Fleury against the Golden Knights in the playoffs, provided he’s finally extracted that sword from his back.
The Wild were 29-17-4 when Kaprizov went out. They briefly threatened Winnipeg for the conference points lead. They’d at least have a shot against Vegas, right?
Here’s the thing: The Golden Knights are really, really good. Sixth in the NHL in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (52.51%). They’re fifth in average offense and third in average defense. They’ve done all of this with a collection of injuries to key players all season. But in true Golden Knights fashion, they’ll all be ready for Game 1 of the postseason, from Jack Eichel — having a career year — to Alex Pietrangelo. They have a collection of game breakers up front with proven playoff pedigrees. They might have the deepest defense corps in the NHL in front of goalie Adin Hill, who found his game after an early-season struggle.
So, in summary: Congrats to the Wild on qualifying for one round of playoff action.
Winner: Vegas eliminates Minnesota in five games.
Beating the same team four times in a short span isn’t commonplace. At some point, a bounce or a break goes the other way. At some point, the team on the losing end will have a roster combination that finally overcomes their tormentors, who are bound to fall off at some point.
The Buffalo Bills were probably telling themselves this before facing the Kansas City Chiefs for the fourth time in five seasons during the AFC playoffs — and getting eliminated by Kansas City again. Blame the coaches, blame the refs, blame whomever — the simple fact is that one team has Patrick Mahomes, one does not, and the team that does was undefeated in those four playoff games.
The Kings have lost to the Oilers in three straight opening-round series, and now face them in a fourth straight. Edmonton is a slim favorite in the series, although many pundits believe the Kings are best positioned to overcome the Oilers in this matchup thanks to home-ice advantage and being a dominant defensive team that was second in the NHL in goals-against average (2.48). Goalie Darcy Kuemper might be the best L.A. netminder Edmonton will have faced in four meetings.
But the simple fact is that, in the same way the 0-4 Bills do not have Patrick Mahomes, the soon-to-be 0-4 Kings do not have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
It’s true that McDavid hasn’t been himself this season: His 1.49 points-per-game average is tied for sixth best of his career, established in a 67-game season marred by injury. Draisaitl led the NHL with 52 goals, but he enters the postseason after missing time with a lower-body injury.
But in 18 playoff games against Los Angeles, McDavid is averaging two points per game. Draisaitl scored 17 goals in those 18 games against the Kings. This isn’t two star players performing well against the same playoff opponent on an annual basis. This is Sauron clearing the battlefield with one swipe of his mace.
It’s hard to beat the same team four straight times. The Kings aren’t a pushover — not with that defense, scorers like Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala, and playoff-tested veterans such as Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. The Oilers are clearly diminished from last season’s version that went to the Cup Final, from the attrition in their supporting cast to the injured Mattias Ekholm missing the first round to their always questionable goaltending.
But they have Connor. And they have Leon. And that’s going to be enough for a fourth straight first-round win.
Winner: The Oilers eliminate the Kings in six games.
Western Conference second round
I just want state for the record that I think there’s a reality in the multiverse in which the Jets play the Maple Leafs for the Stanley Cup in an all-Canadian team banger of a final round. The ceiling for the Jets is hoisting the Cup. They’re that good.
But if the Stars, through sheer luck or perhaps a magical amulet, get past the Avalanche in the first round, they’re going to really get rolling with a healthier squad. Dallas advances to the conference finals for the third straight season.
Winner: Stars eliminate the Jets in six games.
The only playoff meeting between these teams was a delightfully nasty series back in 2023 that the Knights won in six games en route to winning their first Stanley Cup.
Unless the Oilers find another gear after advancing past the Kings, Edmonton is too inconsistent defensively and doesn’t match the depth that Vegas brings to the table. Vegas wins, and the Oilers’ quest for the Cup goes bust.
Winner: Golden Knights eliminate the Oilers in six games.
Western Conference finals
This will be the fourth meeting between these franchises, with Dallas having won in the 2020 conference finals and the first round last season, while the Knights eliminated the Stars in the 2023 conference finals before eventually winning the Cup.
This series is going to be an absolute slobber-knocker between two deep and talented teams. Can the Stars’ blue line handle the physicality of the Golden Knights’ forwards? Dallas is going to need the swift-skating Thomas Harley to make up for what it lacks in sandpaper on defense — and then hope that Oettinger is the best goalie in the series.
Winner: Stars eliminate the Golden Knights in six games.
Stanley Cup Final
The Stars get healthy, stay healthy and use their combination of veteran players starved for a Stanley Cup (Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene) and young dynamic difference-markers like Harley and Wyatt Johnston to finish the championship story they’ve been authoring for three seasons.
After a resurgent season, the Lightning have to settle for more runner-up honors in the Stanley Cup Final.
It’ll be an outstanding series with stars on both sides. Oettinger takes home the Conn Smythe for having kept Tampa Bay’s stars off the board as best he can. It’ll be an epic party in Big D after Game 7, as Dallas wins the Cup for the first time since 1999 and flips the script from the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, when the Bolts defeated the Stars for the championship.
Winner: Stars win in seven games over the Lightning.
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