Key Takeaways
- WXY correction appears completed on higher timeframes.
- Price is forming a bullish divergence on lower timeframes.
- The falling wedge structure suggests a breakout is near.
Toncoin (TON) has recently completed a prolonged corrective cycle and appears to be setting the foundation for a new impulsive wave.
Analysis of the 4-hour chart shows a textbook WXY correction ending in March, while the lower time frame reveals a smaller ABC corrective wave within a falling wedge pattern.
With the price holding above the 0.786 Fib level and bullish divergence forming, Toncoin could be nearing a significant reversal point.
TON Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows a clear WXY complex correction culminating in a final E-wave bottom on March 11.
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Toncoin has been in a prolonged corrective phase since its Jun. 15 peak at $8.28.
This final leg dropped slightly below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $2.35, a historically significant level of support.
A descending channel has encapsulated the entire bearish phase from December, whose breakout we’ve seen in mid-March.
A pullback followed, nearly revering the price to its starting point, yet maintained a higher low of $2.80.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced from oversold territory and is trending upward, making a bullish divergence.
Volatility has remained low, typical of an end-phase correction, and aligns with the likely terminal point of the Y wave.
The overall structure signals that the macro correction may be complete. If $2.68 holds support, Toncoin may soon confirm a new bullish phase.
However, a strong confirmation is still awaited via a breakout above key resistance.
TON Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, Toncoin appears to be forming an ABC corrective wave after completing a five-wave impulse to a high near $4.20 on April 1.
Wave (a) brought the price down to $2.84, wave (b) retraced into a lower high, and wave (c) potentially concluded as the price neared the wedge apex.
The descending wedge pattern is a classical bullish reversal setup.
Its structure aligns with a possible end of wave (c), suggesting the correction is nearly over. RSI also showed higher lows while the price made a lower low, forming a slight bullish divergence.
This setup implies that Toncoin is preparing for another impulsive move, possibly a wave (iii) of a higher-degree cycle.
The most probable breakout scenario would see TON moving rapidly toward the $3.88 and $4.12 resistance levels.
If the breakout is confirmed with a strong bullish candle and rising volume, this could mark the start of a larger bullish wave.
The green zone between $4.50 and $4.73 may be tested next, aligning with the 0.5 Fib retracement from the macro high.
A breakdown below $2.68 would invalidate this bullish outlook and suggest the correction may extend.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fib retracement).
- Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 retracement of recent decline).
- Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $4.122 with volume.
- Invalidation Level: Break below $2.68.
- Fractal Watch Zone: $4.70–$5.56 (target zone for wave (iii)).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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