AMONG THE SUBJECTS reporters wanted Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty to discuss during his media session at this year’s NFL combine, one theme was mentioned repeatedly to the top-5 draft prospect.
Last year, Saquon Barkley showed what a running back can bring to a modern offense with a massive season that helped lift the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl victory. At the college level, Jeanty had a similar impact. He became the first running back selected as a Heisman Trophy finalist since 2017 (Stanford’s Bryce Love) and led the Broncos to the College Football Playoff.
“It’s a great time to be coming into this league,” Jeanty said in February. “I can see the value of running backs is definitely going to go back up. Definitely coming back in at a perfect time.”
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Cincinnati Bengals selecting Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter No. 1 in the draft, which was the last time a running back was taken with the top pick. That streak will remain intact as former University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward is projected to go first overall to the Tennessee Titans, but could the tide be turning? In speaking to multiple coaches and executives across the league this offseason, the perceived downfall of the running back has been exaggerated.
Jeanty and the rest of this year’s running back draft class will help reflect how much value the position brings in the modern NFL, especially as offenses shift further toward a dynamic rushing game. In his latest mock draft, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Jeanty and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton going No. 6 and No. 12, respectively, and three more running backs in the second round. Only one went in the first two rounds last year, Jonathon Brooks to the Carolina Panthers at No. 46 overall. Brooks, who missed the first nine games rehabbing a knee injury he suffered at Texas, ended up playing parts of three games and had 22 yards on nine carries.
“If you have a special, X factor player at the position, it can really enhance your offense,” Jeanty said at the combine.
Barkley and the Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry proved that last season. They had the highest combined total (3,926 yards) of the league’s top-two rushers since Shaun Alexander and Tiki Barber totaled 3,740 rushing yards in 2005, according to ESPN Research. Barkley was named the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, one year after the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey won the award. It was the first time running backs have won that honor in back-to-back years since 2005 and 2006 (Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson).
Still, it is going to take a unique talent, and it would probably have to be a down year for quarterbacks, wide receivers and edge rushers, for a team to take a running back at No. 1 again.
“If Walter Payton were in this draft, I might think about taking him No. 1 overall,” Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin said at the combine. “But our game’s changed a lot. So you’d have to be pretty special.”
THE WAY BARKLEY hurdled defenders, discarded tacklers and thundered downfield for long touchdowns in 2024 evoked memories of an era when the top rushers not only dominated the game but dictated how it was played.
In 1995, nine running backs had 300 or more rushing attempts. In 2023, there were none. Part of that can be attributed to the rise of two-back systems. Five teams had multiple running backs with 150 carries or more in ’23.
There were six players last year who had more than 300 carries. Barkley (345 carries) and Henry (325) accomplished those feats after signing with new teams in free agency.
“These are guys that touched the ball,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said at the combine. “These are the guys that impact games.”
The shift in how football is played is also prevalent in how teams have treated the most premium draft picks.
Since 1996, the year after Carter went to the Bengals, the top five positions drafted with a top 10 pick have all been pass-centric — quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive end and defensive back. There have been nearly twice as many offensive tackles (43) taken in that range during that span as running backs (23).
“There tends to be more runners [in the draft] than maybe some of those other positions,” said Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur at the annual league meeting in Palm Beach, Florida. “I think that’s a big reason why [teams have waited to draft running backs].”
Teams didn’t wait long in 2018. In fact, if the Cleveland Browns had not been on a historically bad run of quarterback play — DeShone Kizer was the starter in ’17 as the Browns went 0-16 — they might have taken Barkley at the top of the draft. Instead, they took Baker Mayfield and the New York Giants drafted Barkley No. 2. Barkley was voted Offensive Rookie of the Year, foreshadowing his huge season last year when he rushed for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns.
“I think they’re looked at as probably replaceable by some people,” DeCosta said. “But if you’ve got a great one, if you’ve got a historic one, you can’t replace those guys.”
IN 2023, JEANTY caught 43 passes for 569 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers dipped to 23-138-1 last year, but Jeanty realizes the weight that skill carries for running backs entering the NFL.
“You see the way the game is trending, the backs that are ranked high in terms of the NFL, getting paid more, that’s the goal obviously, they’re able to catch the ball out of the backfield,” Jeanty told ESPN in 2023. “The really good ones are able to line up in the slot, too, and run routes.”
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who was picked No. 12 in 2023, did more than just catch passes. Last season, Gibbs had 33 gains of 15 or more yards, the most among all players at his position as the Lions reached the NFC title game. To put that in perspective, Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had 34 such gains, good for third-most in the league.
“Explosive plays are very close to the turnover margin,” Carolina Panthers coach Dave Canales told ESPN at the league meeting. “If you can (have a plus-2 margin) in explosives, over the years we’ve learned that almost equals getting a ball from the opponent. It’s really close in percentage in terms of leading to wins.”
That last part, more than anything, is why the value of running backs has increased entering this year’s draft.
“We’ve just seen a running back [in Barkley] just take over our league last year and win the Super Bowl,” Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris said.
A COUPLE OF months after the Buffalo Bills made him the ninth overall pick in 2010, running back CJ Spiller had to know.
So he found Buddy Nix, the general manager for the Bills at the time, and asked him point-blank. Why, exactly, did the Bills draft him that high? At the time, Buffalo had other running backs on the roster including Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson
Nix had a simple answer — always take the best player available.
In 2012, even in a rough season for the Bills, Spiller had the type of year that Gibbs posted last year — 1,703 scrimmage yards and 6.8 yards per touch, the most of any running back that season with at least 150 touches.
Spiller, now a college assistant at Clemson, has been thrilled to see the likes of Gibbs and the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson join veterans such as Barkley and Henry with impressive production. For a running back to go high in the draft, Spiller said it takes a franchise to believe a player can be a true difference-maker, especially when it comes to forcing a defense to stay honest against the run and opening up deep passing lanes.
“Trust me, all offensive line coaches are not going to want to be in a five-man [pass] protection all game,” Spiller told ESPN in March. “And all offensive coordinators and head coaches that have an offensive background aren’t going to want to be throwing quick [passes] all game. They’re going to want to take some shots down the field.”
While the positional value of a running back is increasing, it still may be a while — if ever — for one to be picked No. 1 overall again.
“It’s like hiring a person that can hit home runs versus someone who can play good defense and hit singles,” said Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead. “You need both, but you probably get drafted earlier — maybe in the first round — if you’re that person who can win the offensive scheme and players give that person a crease and he gets 60 [yards] instead of 12.5 or eight.”
One AFC head coach told ESPN elite quarterbacks, receivers and edge rushers take precedence over other positions, including running backs.
That wasn’t the case in 1995 as the Bengals traded the Nos. 5 and 36 picks to the expansion Panthers in order to draft Carter, the Heisman runner-up who helped lead Penn State to an undefeated season and second-place national finish.
But Carter never realized his potential as injuries limited him to parts of seven seasons. His career-high in yardage was 464 in 1997, his only season with more than 100 rushing attempts (128).
Jeanty also finished as the Heisman runner-up, but the comparisons he points to involve backs who have helped revolutionize the position.
“Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, I get compared to those guys all the time,” Jeanty said. “It’s a good thing to be able to be so versatile. Not only does that [increase] my draft stock, but it helps my game even more.”
Sarah Barshop contributed to this report.
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