Key Takeaways
- U.S. retail sales will serve as a key gauge of consumer sentiment this week.
- The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates again—its seventh reduction since June 2024.
- Investors will watch major bank earnings for insight into how firms are navigating economic uncertainty.
After weeks of market churn, global investors are bracing for a potentially defining stretch.
With central banks recalibrating and earnings season gaining momentum, the coming days could offer a litmus test for sentiment across continents.
With central banks recalibrating and earnings season gaining momentum, this week could serve as a litmus test for sentiment across continents.
Inflation, monetary policy and geopolitical tensions continue to shape global markets. What happens this week may reinforce optimism around a soft landing—or expose lingering vulnerabilities beneath the surface.
ECB and U.S. Data in Focus
Retail sales data from the United States, due Wednesday, will provide insight into the health of consumer spending—an engine behind nearly 70% of the American economy.
Since mid-February, the S&P 500 has retreated, and falling stock prices may be taking a toll on confidence. Economists warn this could reflect a “wealth effect reversal” that weakens purchasing behavior.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates next week. It would mark the ECB’s seventh cut since June, with rates forecast to fall to 2.25% if confirmed.
Nomura analysts told CCN that Europe’s recovery will remain gradual due to structural challenges and soft consumer demand.
“We believe that U.S. tariffs will be an important immediate headwind, whereas German and other EU fiscal announcements will be a medium-term tailwind,” analysts said.
“ECB monetary policy is on the precipice of neutral, and we foresee two further 25bp rate cuts in April and June, resulting in a terminal rate of 2.00%.”
Economic calendar highlights:
- Tuesday: U.K. labor market data, China’s Q1 GDP and March retail sales.
- Wednesday: U.K. inflation, U.S. retail sales and industrial production.
- Thursday: ECB rate decision and Japan inflation data.
Earnings Season Heats Up
Major U.S. banks are in the spotlight as earnings season ramps up.
Wall Street will be watching how companies respond to ongoing uncertainty, including the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.
On Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors that more firms may withhold full-year guidance, citing “considerable turbulence” ahead.
Goldman Sachs reports Monday after beating expectations last quarter. Bank of America and Citibank will follow on Tuesday. Results from M&T Bank, PNC Financial, U.S. Bancorp and American Express are also expected.
In tech, Netflix reports Thursday. The company impressed last quarter with robust revenue growth and a stronger 2025 outlook. This quarter, it will stop reporting subscriber numbers for the first time.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) also reports Thursday. After beating earnings expectations last quarter, the chipmaker’s results will be closely watched for signs of continued strength in the semiconductor space.
Bitcoin Eyes Comeback
Bitcoin (BTC) recently broke out of a declining short-term trend channel, suggesting downward pressure is easing. This could mark the start of sideways consolidation—or even a trend reversal.
BTC has edged past resistance around $84,000. If the breakout holds, the move could open the door to further upside.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is also moving above a longer-term downtrend boundary, which may signal a broader slowdown in selling momentum.
After hitting a previous target near $80,521 during a double-top breakdown, BTC has rebounded. However, the bearish overhang from that pattern remains, suggesting the risk of another downturn is not entirely off the table.
Support lies around $70,000, while overhead resistance nears $92,500. In the short term, price action remains range-bound, with a support base near $74,000 and resistance below $88,000.
This week, trading volume will be key. A recent volume spike at the lower end of this range may reflect accumulation—or signal a final shakeout before broader recovery.
