Key Takeaways
Polkadot (DOT) decreased by over 90% in two years since its all-time high in November 2021. The price finally began a rally in 2023, but that was short-lived.
After creating a lower high in December 2024, the DOT price broke down from its long-term support at $3.70 and risks falling to a new all-time low.
Will DOT fall to new lows, or can it muster enough strength for a bounce? Let’s find out.
DOT Price Breakdown
The DOT price has fallen without retracement since December 2024, reaching a low of $3.25 on April 9.
The downward movement confirmed a breakdown from the ascending support trend line and the $3.70 horizontal support area.
Polkadot’s $3.25 low is a 5-year low and slightly above the all-time low of $2.69. So, there is now more support below the $3.70 area.
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling.
The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative, showing a bearish trend.
So, the DOT price could fall to a new all-time low unless it reclaims the $3.70 support area.
Let’s look at a lower time frame and see if the DOT price can reclaim it.
Will Polkadot Bounce?
The daily time frame price history gives a more optimistic Polkadot outlook than the weekly one.
Polkadot’s wave count shows a completed five-wave downward movement (red) since December 2024.
While this means the long-term trend is bearish, it also suggests a significant bounce is likely.
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A descending wedge contains the final portion of the Polkadot decrease, further enhancing the likelihood of a breakout.
So does the bullish, engulfing candlestick (green icon) created on April 11.
The daily MACD has also generated a bullish divergence (orange), making a breakout more likely.
If DOT begins an A-B-C corrective move to the upside, it could reach the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance at $6.50-$7.50.
Afterward, the long-term downward trend could continue.
Relief Rally in April
The DOT price lost a long-term horizontal support area and nearly fell to a new all-time low.
While the long-term trend is bearish, the short-term one predicts a bounce.
Polkadot has completed a five-wave upward movement and could begin a rally with a breakout.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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