Alexander Volkanovski is a former UFC featherweight champion who reigned for more than four years, but he has lost his two most recent fights, both by knockout. What does Volkanovski have to do to regain the throne Saturday when he faces Diego Lopes in a fight for the vacant title at UFC 314 in Miami (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+ at 8)?
Volkanovski (26-4) has not fought since losing his title to Ilia Topuria in February 2024. But with Topuria having decided to vacate the championship to move up to lightweight, Volkanovski will get a shot at his old belt by facing Lopes (26-6), winner of five fights in a row. His most recent victory was by unanimous decision over onetime title challenger Brian Ortega last September.
Volkanovski is No. 2 and Lopes No. 4 in the ESPN featherweight rankings.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC featherweight Dan Ige, who is scheduled to face Sean Woodson in the UFC 314 prelims and who lost to Lopes last year, to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker added insight and analysis on the UFC main event and other intriguing bets he likes on that card as well as in Friday’s PFL first-round matchups featuring bantamweights and women’s flyweights.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Featherweight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
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Alexander Volkanovski: I plan on reminding everyone that I’m not done
Alexander Volkanovski joins “First Take” to discuss his upcoming title fight against Diego Lopes.
Dan Ige, UFC featherweight
How Volkanovski wins: He must use his footwork and test Lopes’ gas tank in the later rounds. I noticed when I fought Diego that, once I started to implement my footwork and found my range, I started to take over as he faded. That’s where Volk wins. He’s a great tactician, and his team always comes up with great game plans. He needs to stay away from Lopes’ explosive flurries early and get the fight to the later rounds. Lopes has a very big presence in the Octagon, different from anyone else I’ve ever fought. He throws everything he’s got with 100%, and that’s where I get a little afraid for Volkanovski. But if he uses his footwork and angles and wears on Lopes’ cardio, I think he can take over late.
How Lopes wins: The key for him is just to not change anything up. Don’t overthink it. The way Volkanovski has been knocked out in his past couple of fights is going to give Lopes a lot of confidence. When you’re fighting somebody you know has been dropped, hurt, knocked out, it gives you a little bit of fire that you can do it yourself. Diego has lightning in his hands. He’s not the most technical fighter, and that’s OK. If he tries to be technical with Volkanovski, Volk wins all day. Don’t be technical. Go in there and fight. Brawl and try to hurt the guy.
X factor: It’s that Lopes presence I spoke about. I’ve fought Josh Emmett, “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, Calvin Kattar — none of them had that presence. Everything Lopes did, it hurt.
Prediction: I favor Volkanovski to win, but I don’t count out Lopes. I think here’s a big chance he can hurt Volk in Rounds 1 or 2.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Lopes to win (+105). Volkanovski is not only coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, but those losses were both KOs. A little over a year after the second one, he returns to the cage to take on another KO artist. Lopes has power along with elite jiu-jitsu skills. He rarely uses them, but they’re there if needed. The question with Lopes used to be his cardio — he faded if he couldn’t win in Round 1 — but that was not an issue in his most recent win over Brian Ortega. At underdog odds/plus money, I am taking Lopes to become the new champ.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Lightweight: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
Chandler to win (+125). As much of a rising star as Pimblett is, he has yet to face competition of Chandler’s level, nor has he fought someone who can pose a threat like Chandler. When composed (which is not very often), Chandler has the skill set to be a champion, as we have seen in many fights. He was a few seconds from defeating Charles Oliveira in their first fight in 2021 and was en route to beating Dustin Poirier the next year until he got caught in both fights. Chandler will have the wrestling, speed and power advantage. As long as he doesn’t get dropped or let Pimblett take his back, Chandler gets the finish. At underdog odds in a five-round fight — something he has experienced before — I am taking Chandler.
Featherweight: Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull
Rodriguez to win (-195). Pitbull’s Octagon debut should be a banger for 15 minutes. Pitbull has the advantage if he wrestles and puts Rodriguez on his back. If he can do that, he can take away the unpredictable striking of Rodriguez. However, many have tried that and failed, and considering the way Pitbull has fought over the years, I expect this fight to stay on the feet. A win over Pitbull, a Bellator MMA legend, would move Rodriguez a step closer to a title shot.
Strawweight: Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba
Jandiroba to win (-150). In what looks to be a No. 1 contender fight, this will be a battle of styles between striker and grappler. Jandiroba has world-class jiu-jitsu, and as her career has progressed, so has her striking. In her last fight, a submission win over onetime title challenger Amanda Lemos, Jandiroba was able to utilize her striking to set up her ground game, which might be the best in the division. Yan has tremendous power in her striking, but when she is put on her back (which happens often), she tends to just play defense and stay there for the duration of the round. Look for Jandiroba to get this fight to the floor as quickly as possible and secure her status as next in line for a crack at the title.
Parker’s best bets on the PFL card
Bantamweight: Leandro Higo vs. Josh Rettinghouse
Higo by submission or decision. In the new main event, elevated to the top of the card after 2024 season finalist Taila Santos dropped out of the women’s flyweight bracket, top-seeded Higo takes on newcomer Rettinghouse in the first round of the bantamweight tournament. Higo is a 3-1 favorite and, quite frankly, the line should be wider. Higo is good on the feet, but where he excels is on the ground with his jiu-jitsu. Look for Higo to take Rettinghouse down quickly, giving him no opportunity to land a big punch. Higo should be able to latch onto a submission or control his way to a decision victory.
Women’s flyweight: Liz Carmouche vs. Ilara Joanne
Carmouche to win inside the distance. Carmouche, who lost in last season’s PFL semifinals after three title defenses in Bellator, is the largest favorite on Friday’s card at a whopping -850. At that number, I’m not sure adding her to a parlay will get you much additional value. However, Carmouche finished all of her final four Bellator fights and will be looking to make a statement against Joanne. She will have an advantage no matter where the fight goes. The only question is how aggressive Carmouche gets with her striking early in the fight.
Bantamweight: Kasum Kasumov vs. Justin Wetzell
Kasumov by decision. Riding a six-fight winning streak, with his last two victories being in Bellator, Kasumov will be looking to make his mark in the PFL. He is a pressure grappler who sets a menacing pace and over time breaks his opponents down. Wetzell is no slouch in the grappling department, either, and has been finished once in his 12-fight professional career. Do I expect Kasumov to win? Yes. However, I think this fight goes all three rounds. Kasumov is a 5-1 favorite, so you can put him in a parlay and separately take him to win by decision if you want better odds.
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