Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) is hovering at a pivotal confluence zone following a prolonged sell-off from its January $294 peak.
The daily and hourly timeframes confirm that the price has the possibility of a bounce and further descending price action.
What happens in the next couple of days will decided SOL’s longer-term outlook.
SOL Price Analysis
Solana’s daily chart reflects the broader cycle of an extended five-wave impulse, culminating at the 5th wave near $294 before initiating a significant correction.
Price broke down from a rising wedge and has since retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $116.35, which is now serving as critical structural support.
Historically, this zone also acted as consolidation support between March and September 2024 (wave 4 territory), making it a highly sensitive level for directional bias.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart rests around neutral levels, avoiding oversold conditions for now. This implies that momentum has cooled but not exhausted.
If this is completed to a larger degree, Wave II, we should expect impulsive upward price action to resume soon.
Especially as the price interacts with a significant support shelf and aligns with the broader wave cycle logic.
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However, a clean breakdown below $101.68 (0.786 Fib) would invalidate the bullish scenario, confirming that the corrective wave is not yet over.
The chart structure implies that SOL forms a corrective bottom or prepares for a secondary leg lower in a complex correction such as a WXY or triangle continuation.
SOL Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, we see an extended five-wave move concluding at the recent swing low near $112.
This appears to mark wave v of a lower-degree impulse, followed by an unfolding a-b-c corrective structure.
The wave “a” recovery bounced into the green demand zone, peaking just under the 0.236 extension at $121.62 before initiating a wave “b” dip.
Wave “c” could now extend upward toward $130.18, aligning with the previous breakdown zone and marking a probable pivot point for future market direction.
Two short-term paths emerge: a bullish breakout above $130.18 would suggest the beginning of a fresh five-wave advance toward higher Fibonacci levels.
Conversely, failure at or below this level could lead to another bearish leg, possibly targeting the 0.5 and 0.618 extensions around $93.92 and $84.06, respectively.
The RSI on this timeframe is mid-range, signaling the potential for continuation in either direction, though early bullish divergence supports a relief rally.
A break above $121.62 would mark the first confirmation of upward continuation, while $112.05 and $107.77 serve as key retracement supports to defend during any wave “c” pullback.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $121.62 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Pivot Resistance: $130.18 (ABC Wave C Target).
- Major Resistance: $151.96 (0.5 Daily Fib Retracement).
- Immediate Support: $112.05 (0.5 Fib retracement on 1H).
- Critical Support: $101.68 (0.786 Daily Fibonacci retracement).
- Bearish Target: $93.92 to $84.06 (Fibonacci extensions).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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