Key Takeaways
Story (IP) has completed a significant structural decline from its all-time high and is now testing a critical decision zone.
This analysis uses the 4-hour chart to assess the macro pattern and the 1-hour chart to forecast near-term movement.
It breaks down whether the recent price action signals the end of a correction or the continuation of the downtrend.
IP Price Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, IP appears to have completed a large corrective WXY structure, with wave Y forming a clean three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) decline.
The corrective phase followed an impulsive five-wave rally from $1.38 to $7.97.
The final drop in wave (c) of Y brought the price down to $4.30, just shy of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.89, which has now established itself as key support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered the oversold zone on April 2 and recovered to 40% with the price rise.
We saw an interaction with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $4.67, which sent IP into a pullback.
This 12% rise could be the first sign of a bullish reversal, but further confirmation is needed as the price has continuously declined since March 25.
The symmetrical triangle structure formed after the top suggests that the move down has been corrective, and the recent breakdown may have been a final capitulation wick.
A sustained move above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4.67, followed by a break of $5.45 (0.382 Fib), would indicate a new impulsive phase.
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However, failure to do so would reintroduce the risk of testing lower supports near $3.89 or even $2.78 (0.786 Fib).
IP Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart reveals the internal structure of the final corrective wave (c), showing a clear five-wave impulsive decline into the $4.20 region.
This decline completed wave Y and was followed by a sharp RSI bounce, highlighting short-term bullish divergence.
Since then, a tentative wave i-ii structure has formed, with price currently sitting within wave ii.
A bullish scenario would validate if wave iii breaches $5.00 and continues toward $5.45.
This level, marked clearly on the chart, represents the “bullish validation zone” as it would mean that the price entered the now-labeled wave (a), which cannot be done in a descending five-wave impulse.
If wave iii extends impulsively above this region, it would confirm that a new uptrend is underway, likely aiming for $6.41 (0.236 retracements) and eventually retesting the $7.00 zone.
However, another bearish leg may unfold if wave iii fails to gain momentum or stalls below $5.00.
This would constitute wave (v) of a deeper correction or even a continuation of the prior decline, targeting $3.89, $3.20 (1.272 extension), or even as low as $2.78 (0.786 retracement).
RSI remains neutral but is rising, suggesting momentum is building. Price action over 24–48 hours will likely confirm the dominant path forward.
The recent rise has made two waves, and the third one to the upside is awaited.
A breakout above $5 will be the differentiating factor between scenarios because if the recent rise was corrective, the breakout shouldn’t occur.
The opposite is true if the price starts a five-wave impulse to the upside which will validate the bullish outlook.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $4.67 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Breakout Level: $5.45 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement, bullish validation).
- Major Resistance: $6.41 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Immediate Support: $4.30 (local low from wave (c)).
- Critical Support: $3.89 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Bearish Targets: $3.20 and $2.78 (1.272 and 0.786 extensions).
- Invalidation: Break above $5.45 confirms trend reversal.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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