Toncoin (TON) recently completed a strong impulsive recovery from a long-lasting descending channel, reaching our previously outlined target of $4.12.
A rejection occurred, sending TON into a 12% sharp decline, and it is still moving to the downside.
This analysis uses multiple time frames to determine whether the recent decline is part of a healthy retracement or the start of a deeper pullback.
TON Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart of TON displays a classic five-wave impulsive advance that began after the bottom of wave (e) near $2.356 on March 11.
This surge ended around $4.12, slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the prior uptrend to the all-time high.
The rally broke through the descending channel, confirming a bullish breakout, but the rejection at $4.12 has triggered a swift reversal.
This suggests that wave (v) of the recent impulse has been completed, making way for an ABC corrective phase.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also signaled a bearish divergence, failing to make a new high while the price continued higher—further supporting a likely retracement scenario.
It is now getting close to the oversold zone, but further downside room remains.
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We could see a minor corrective bounce, but since TON likely ended its five-wave impulse, it is now entering a corrective stage.
Based on the depth of this pullback, we will evaluate future targets and the possibility of a new bull phase starting.
TON Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, we can observe the unfolding of an ABC correction from the $4.12 high.
Wave (a) appears completed or nearly completed, with a potential to proceed to the $3.50 area at the 0.382 Fib of the last prior uptrend.
RSI formed a slight bullish divergence, showing recovery while the price made new lows—a potential signal for a short-term wave (b) relief bounce.
The rebound is expected to target the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels around $3.80
This is expected as a corrective wave, followed by a deeper wave (c) move.
If this corrective structure plays out as anticipated, the next leg lower could bring TON to test $3.28 (0.5) or $3.07 (0.618), consistent with higher timeframe retracement zones.
The corrective structure will remain valid if the price does not break back above $4.18.
If that happens, the entire corrective count would be invalidated, and the previous uptrend could resume.
The market respects Fibonacci levels cleanly, and the structure favors a classic three-wave correction.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $3.91 (0.382 retracement of drop).
- Bullish Invalidator: $4.12 (local top and wave (v) high).
- Immediate Support: $3.60 (current wave (a) low).
- Key Support: $3.28 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Support: $3.07 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
- Bearish Target: $2.68 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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