Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) has been navigating a corrective phase after completing a five-wave impulse near $294.
The recent charts reflect a key decision point: price action is compressing between major Fibonacci levels and structural support.
With both bullish and bearish scenarios, SOL appears poised for a significant directional move.
SOL Price Analysis
Solana’s broader structure, visible in the 4-hour time frame, confirms the end of a long, impulsive rally at an all-time high of $294, which completed Wave 5 of a macro Elliott structure.
The subsequent decline formed a correction in a descending channel, with the most recent low bottoming out near $118.34 on March 11.
This was at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the impulsive wave, which is why we saw a recovery.
The following breakout from the descending channel recently broke to the upside, suggesting a possible bullish reversal.
Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at this time frame has shifted from oversold to neutral, indicating some relief in bearish pressure, though upside momentum remains cautious.
Post-breakout, SOL reclaimed the $131–$140 support band but got rejected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $147, failing to confirm a bullish continuation.
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The recovery remains tentative until the price clears the 0.382 Fibonacci barrier at $185.57.
SOL Price Prediction
On the 1-hour chart, SOL’s price action offers a decisive inflection zone narrative.
After peaking near $147 and forming a rising channel, the price made a downward breakout, leading to a pullback toward the key horizontal demand zone between $125 and $130.
This area coincides with a retest of the prior breakout level from the wedge and the lower channel support.
Two immediate outcomes are now in play.
The bullish scenario sees this as a Wave (ii) retracement, setting the stage for a third impulsive wave (Wave (iii)) higher, potentially targeting $185.57.
This would align with a 1.618 extension move if the base holds.
Conversely, failure to hold this green support zone would invalidate the bullish view and trigger a continuation toward Wave Z of the triple corrective pattern.
In that case, downside targets emerge at $118.34 (0.618 retracements) and possibly down to $70.48 (0.786), depending on selling momentum.
The RSI on this timeframe is leaning toward oversold, hinting at a potential bounce.
However, confirmation requires a higher low and reclaim of $140 to validate renewed bullish pressure. Until then, the risk of capitulation remains.
Solana is now at a pivotal decision point.
A bounce from current levels may initiate a fresh impulsive wave, but failure to defend the $130 support could lead to another bearish leg completing a triple correction.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $151.96 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Secondary Resistance: $185.57 (0.382 Fibonacci level).
- Major Resistance: $190.49 (horizontal structural level).
- Immediate Support: $130 (horizontal and trendline confluence).
- Key Support: $118.34 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Support: $70.48 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement – Wave Z target).
- Short-Term Target for Wave (iii): $185–$190 if support holds.
- Invalidation Zone: Below $118 signals a bearish continuation toward $70.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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