Ethereum continues to trade within a multi-month correction, displaying a classic WXY pattern on the higher time frame.
Price action remains tightly bound within a descending channel, recently getting rejected at $2,125.
With the seller’s pressure building and key structural levels in play, ETH approaches a make-or-break inflection point.
ETH Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum’s prolonged corrective decline since peaking above $4,100 in March 2024.
A WXY pattern is visible, with Wave W bottoming near $2,100 and Wave X making a double top at $4,106 in December.
The current leg, Wave Y, unfolds as a complex ABCDE structure within a descending channel.
Wave E is potentially in its final stages. It reached a low of $1,760 on March 11, after which we saw a recovery.
However, the price has been rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and exhibits strong downward momentum.
The relative strength index (RSI) is drifting near oversold, suggesting that a potential momentum reversal may be forming.
The broader structure implies that ETH may be approaching the completion of the corrective wave, and a breakout above the descending resistance trendline could initiate a new impulsive rally.
However, rejection here could still force the price into the final depths of Wave e, targeting $1,586 (0.786 Fib) as the ultimate corrective low.
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Bulls remain vulnerable until a clear break above the $2,200–$2,300 range occurs.
Price remains below all key Fibonacci confluences (0.382 at $2,881, 0.5 at $2,503), underscoring the ongoing bearish structure.
ETH Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart supports the thesis that ETH is forming the final segments of its corrective structure, with wave e of Y potentially unfolding in a five-wave diagonal within the descending channel.
The recent local breakdown brought the price down to the $1,900 region, hovering above the critical green demand zone near $1,860.
Two near-term scenarios emerge. A bullish resolution from here would involve a sharp bounce off the lower channel boundary, followed by a breakout above $2,125, confirming the end of wave e.
That would open the door to $2,500 (0.5 Fib) and $2,881 (0.382 Fib) as primary upside targets, consistent with an impulsive reversal wave.
The bearish alternative anticipates further downside continuation within wave E, likely targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $1,586 — a level of significant historical reaction.
RSI on the 1-hour chart is currently flirting with oversold territory, hinting at potential exhaustion in selling momentum.
Considering the downward momentum, the bearish view is more likely, but confirmation will soon arrive after interacting with the support zone.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $2,125 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Secondary Resistance: $2,503 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Major Resistance: $2,881 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Immediate Support: $1,860 (local horizontal support).
- Key Support: $1,586 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Zone: $1,860–$1,586 — potential Wave Y bottom.
- Short-Term Target: $2,500–$2,880 if a bullish reversal is confirmed.
- Invalidation: Breakdown below $1,586 invalidates reversal setup.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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