Story (IP) has recently completed a contracting triangle formation following a strong five-wave impulsive rally.
The breakout signals renewed bullish momentum, but early signs of exhaustion are signaled by signs of struggle at the prior high.
This analysis breaks down two potential scenarios as the price could be at a critical juncture.
IP Price Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, IP exhibits a textbook Elliott Wave impulse from mid-February, peaking just under $8.00 in wave (v).
An A-B-C-D-E correction followed within a symmetrical triangle, clearly visible across several weeks.
This structure concluded at wave (e), forming a solid higher low of $5.46, aligning with the 0.328 Fibonacci retracement level on March 11.
The price has since broken out to the upside, piercing the triangle’s upper resistance line near $6.00, but the momentum stopped at the prior high of $6.50.
This high corresponds with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the prior peak, adding to the significance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum in this timeframe moved sharply higher during the breakout but is now hovering near overbought levels, hinting at possible near-term resistance.
This recent structure suggests that a larger corrective phase may be behind us. While the current move is likely wave 1 of a new impulsive series.
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However, sustained movement above the $6.50 area is required to validate further upside into the $7.00–$7.50 zone.
Immediate support rests at $5.46 (0.382 retracements), and a failure to hold above $5.80 could indicate a failed breakout or deeper retest.
IP Price Prediction
The 15-minute chart reveals a more detailed view of the ongoing post-breakout impulse.
The structure appears to have completed a lower-degree five-wave rally, with the wave having the potential for one more high retest of the $6.50 area.
Notably, RSI divergence is evident between waves iii and v, typically signaling waning bullish strength and the potential start of a corrective phase.
Expectations now favor a three-wave A-B-C correction, with a wave possibly initiating a retracement toward $6.00 or even as low as $5.80. I
f this level holds, wave b could produce a relief bounce before the final leg c completes the pullback—potentially near the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $5.46.
Once this correction is finalized, a second impulsive rally (larger wave 3 or C) could begin, targeting $6.90 and beyond.
The scenario remains bullish as long as the price holds above the $5.46 structural and Fib confluence. Below this, invalidation occurs, signaling a more extensive correction or a potential triangle fakeout.
Short-term traders should watch RSI behavior closely during the pullback—if it resets near 40–50 while the price remains elevated, it would be a strong bullish continuation signal.
Volume confirmation will also be key on the next breakout.
The breakout signals trend resumption potential, but patience is warranted as the next leg forms post-correction.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $6.42 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Short-Term Support: $5.80 (local structure support).
- Major Support: $5.46 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Upside Target: $6.90–$7.20 upon corrective completion.
- Invalidation: Below $5.46 risks a deeper downside.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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