Solana has struggled mightily in 2025. While the year began positively, taking Sol to its all-time high of $295.31, it all went downhill afterward. SOL plunged by 58%, falling to its March 2024 prices and risking a breakdown from a long-term horizontal support area.
However, all hope is not lost. SOL has created a short-term bullish pattern that could lead to a bounce, regaining some losses since the all-time high.
Furthermore, SOL CME futures launched on March 17 , generating a $5 million volume. With that in mind, let’s analyze the charts and see how likely that is.
Solana Falls to Support
The weekly time frame SOL chart shows that the price has fallen by 57% since reaching its all-time high of $295.31 in January 2025.
The downward movement culminated with a low of $112, taking SOL inside the $125 horizontal support area, where it currently trades.
Even though Solana trades inside support, all signs suggest the bullish market cycle has ended. The wave count shows a completed five-wave upward movement that started in December 2022.
Wave five caused a deviation above the previous all-time high resistance and created a long upper wick (red icon).
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) generated bearish divergences (orange) that catalyzed the Solana decline.
Bearish divergences in the weekly time frame are rare and often lead to bearish trend reversals.
Furthermore, the indicators are below 50 and 0, respectively, pointing to a bearish trend. So, the weekly time frame suggests a breakdown is likely.
However, a bounce could occur before the Solana price plunges again.
Can the SOL Price Bounce?
The daily time frame Solana chart gives a more bullish outlook. Firstly, it shows that SOL could be trading inside a descending wedge pattern since its all-time high. The descending wedge is considered a bullish pattern, leading to breakouts most of the time.
SOL is nearing the end of the pattern, so a decisive movement will likely occur soon.
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Secondly, the RSI and MACD have generated bullish divergences (orange). From the weekly time frame, such divergences often lead to trend reversals.
So, while the SOL price could continue consolidating inside the wedge, an eventual breakout is likely, taking it to $183, a horizontal and Fibonacci resistance.
Alternatively, a decisive close below the $125 horizontal area in the weekly time frame will invalidate this outlook, suggesting that the trend is still bearish and leading to new lows.
Solana Prevents Breakdown
The SOL price plunged after its all-time high, falling 58% without experiencing any retracement.
However, SOL trades inside a long-term horizontal support area, creating a short-term bullish pattern. Therefore, a significant short-term bounce could follow.
However, this will likely not be a bullish trend reversal but a relief rally before the Solana price falls to new lows.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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