Key Takeaways
Polkadot (DOT) recently broke out of a prolonged corrective structure, showing early signs of bullish recovery.
The higher time frame (4-hour chart) reveals a falling wedge breakout, which typically signals trend reversals.
Meanwhile, the lower time frame (1-hour chart) suggests an ongoing five-wave impulse structure, indicating further bullish potential.
Key Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave analysis will help determine the next significant price movement.
DOT Price Analysis
DOT has been in a prolonged downtrend since reaching a high of $11, forming a clear ABCDE correction within a descending wedge.
The final wave (e) appears to have bottomed out at around $3.60, close to the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level, meaning that the price reverted nearly 100% on March 11.
The breakout from this wedge suggests a potential reversal, with the price now targeting higher Fibonacci retracement levels.
The first significant resistance lies at $5.19, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend.
If DOT breaks through this level with strong volume, it could confirm a larger bullish reversal, targeting $6.45 (0.618 Fibonacci level) as the next major upside zone.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is recovering from oversold territory, suggesting renewed buying interest.
However, a failure to hold above $4.00 – $4.10 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the latest move) could lead to another corrective leg before sustained upward momentum.
DOT Price Prediction
On the 1-hour chart, DOT is currently within an Elliott Wave five-wave impulse structure. The price has already completed waves (i) through (iv), with wave (v) targeting the $4.57 – $4.60 range.
This area coincides with a local resistance zone, making it a critical monitoring level.
We see the rising wedge formation, which could be interpreted as a leading diagonal in a new bullish structure.
A corrective (a)-(b)-(c) retracement is expected after the completion of wave (v), likely bringing DOT back toward $4.00 – $4.12, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
If the price successfully holds above this zone, it would confirm the bullish trend and raise the next leg.
Following this correction, a breakout above $4.60 could trigger a strong rally toward $5.19, where the 0.786 Fibonacci level from the 4-hour chart aligns with prior structural resistance. If bullish momentum sustains, a broader move toward $6.45 could be in play.
However, failure to hold the $4.00 – $4.10 support could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to a deeper correction back to $3.85 – $3.58, which remains a critical long-term support area.
If DOT successfully holds support and breaks above $5.19, the structure confirms a sustained reversal, with the next significant upside target at $6.45.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $4.57 – $4.60 (local structure resistance).
- Major Resistance: $5.19 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
- Immediate Support: $4.12 – $4.00 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Critical Support: $3.85 – $3.58 (descending wedge breakout level).
- Breakout Target: Above $5.19, aiming for $6.45 (0.618 macro Fibonacci retracement).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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