The Ethereum trend in 2025 has been extremely bearish, leading to a 43% price decline. Ethereum reached a nearly 500-day low of $1,754 on March 11 before bouncing.
While Ethereum has lost a long-term horizontal support level, it is teasing a short-term breakout from a bullish pattern. Can Ethereum break out, and if so, how much further will it increase? Let’s find out.
Ethereum Price Declines
The weekly time frame chart shows that Ethereum broke down from an ascending support trend line that existed for 1,000 days. Since the trendline was in place for the entire cycle, the breakdown indicates the trend has ended.
Additionally, Ethereum fell below the $2,250 horizontal support area, which had initiated several bounces that led to long lower wicks. The price has yet to validate the area as resistance.
Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative.
The weekly time frame suggests Ethereum’s price is in a bear market and will continue falling. If so, the next closest support area will be at $1,600.
Ethereum’s Bearish Trend
Ethereum’s long-term wave count is bearish. The count suggests that ETH finished a five-wave increase (green) between 2019 and 2021.
The Ethereum price started a lengthy W-X-Y correction (red) if accurate. The entire upward movement since June 2022 was wave X in this correction, as evidenced by its containment inside an ascending parallel channel.
Ethereum has likely started wave Y after breaking down from the channel.
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If waves W and Y have the same length, ETH will reach a low of $648, falling below the previous cycle’s low. If so, it would be the first time Ethereum’s price breaks its previous cycle’s low.
Afterward, a significant upward movement could occur.
The shorter-term count does offer some hope for relief since it shows a completed five-wave downward movement where wave five developed into an ending diagonal, as evidenced by the descending wedge pattern.
Furthermore, the daily RSI has generated a bullish divergence (orange), which could lead to an upward movement.
However, as evidenced by the long-term count and readings, this will likely be a relief rally followed by another downward movement.
If a breakout from the wedge happens, the closest resistance area will be $2,615, created by a horizontal and Fibonacci resistance.
Bounce Incoming
Ethereum’s long-term trend is likely bearish because of its wave count and breakdown from a long-term diagonal support trend line.
However, the short-term outlook offers hope for a bounce, confirmed by a breakout from the descending wedge pattern.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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