Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has been puzzling. Despite positive Bitcoin news, spearheaded by Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the price has fallen 30% since its all-time high, culminating with a low of $76,600 on March 11.
Bulls have regained some optimism because of the 10% price bounce since the low. So, the key question is how long Bitcoin will maintain its bounce.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Weekly Close
The weekly time frame chart shows that the Bitcoin price fell by 30% after its all-time high, reaching a low of $76,606.
The downward movement caused a breakdown from the $92,500 horizontal support area and led to the lowest weekly close of the year last week. This was a strong sign that Bitcoin had started its bear market.
Bitcoin’s wave count agrees with this outlook. According to the count, Bitcoin has completed a five-wave increase (green) since December 2022.
Wave five extended, having the same length as waves one and three combined. The sub-wave count is in orange, showing a completed five-wave movement.
Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) generated a bearish divergence (orange) between March and November 2024. So, all weekly time frame signs indicate the Bitcoin price has started its bear market.
The first major support area is between $73,000 and $74,000, created by a horizontal support area and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support level.
Bitcoin Price Bounces
The daily time frame chart shows that BTC created a bullish candlestick (green icon) on March 11, increasing by 10%. While the increase is positive, Bitcoin has closed above $83,000 to confirm its bullish trend reversal.
This key level previously provided support and has now likely turned to resistance. Clearing it could take the Bitcoin price to the descending resistance trend line at $89,200.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but has not confirmed the upward movement yet. The indicator generated a bullish divergence before the bounce but is still below 50.
The indicator has to move above this level to confirm its upward movement toward resistance.
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Bticoin’s short-term wave count agrees with this potential bounce. It shows that Bitcoin has completed a W-X-Y correction where waves W and Y have almost the same ratio.
If the count is accurate, Bitcoin has started a corrective rally that could take it to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at $93,160.
This is very close to the long-term resistance at $92,500, making it a suitable level for a retest.
According to the long-term count, this is simply the first part of the correction. So, the downward movement is likely to continue once the relief rally ends.
Bullish March Trend
The Bitcoin price fell by 30% after its all-time high and shows strong signs that it is in a bear market.
However, a bounce started on March 11 and could continue in the next few weeks, possibly retesting the $92,500 resistance area. Nevertheless, the long-term trend remains bearish.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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