Solana (SOL) has been in a prolonged downtrend, forming a clear five-wave decline. SOL recently tested a key support zone and showed signs of a potential reversal.
The 4-hour time frame suggests a completed corrective structure, while the 1-hour time frame hints at an upcoming bounce.
SOL Price Analysis
The 4-hour SOL chart reveals a completed five-wave structure. The price is currently testing a major horizontal support zone at around $128.
This decline originated from an ascending channel structure, which was completed at $294 on Jan.19, marking an all-time high.
The bearish trend intensified after SOL lost the $190 level, which was a key pivot.
The price structure followed Elliott Wave principles throughout the decline, nearly reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $118. This area aligns with a historical support zone, reinforcing the probability of a local bottom.
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The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also at oversold levels, mirroring prior reversal points. A bullish reaction at this zone could confirm the completion of the corrective phase, potentially initiating a new upward cycle.
It may validate the reversal thesis if the price holds above $128 and breaks above immediate resistance at $151 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
However, failure to hold the $118 support could lead to a deeper decline toward lower retracement zones.
SOL Price Prediction
On the 1-hour chart, SOL appears to have completed its fifth and final wave of the decline and is showing early signs of a potential recovery.
The price has bounced from the $128 region and is attempting to reclaim higher levels.
The next short-term target is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $185, which aligns with prior structural resistance. A further upside toward the 0.5 retracement at $151 is likely if the momentum is sustained.
A stronger breakout could push SOL toward the 0.236 level at $227, signaling a more significant recovery.
However, a failure to gain momentum above these resistance levels may indicate a prolonged consolidation phase. The RSI on the 1-hour chart suggests a minor bullish divergence, hinting at the potential for short-term upside.
Traders should monitor whether SOL can sustain above $128. A confirmed breakout above $152 could trigger a move toward the upper Fibonacci levels, while a drop below $118 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $151 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Key Resistance: $185 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Major Resistance: $227 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
- Immediate Support: $128 (current local bottom).
- Critical Support: $118 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Short-Term Target: Above $185 if momentum sustains.
- Invalidation Zone: Below $118, signaling further downside.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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