Litecoin spent the last four months ranging between $100 and $140. The consolidation might have ended last week when LTC reached the lowest daily close of the year at $94.62.
One possible catalyst is the negative Litecoin news last week. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a Bitcoin reserve and named four other cryptocurrencies for inclusion in the crypto reserve.
Litecoin was absent from the list, contributing to its decline following the White House crypto summit.
Since Litecoin has fallen below its main horizontal area, more downside could follow unless the price quickly mounts a reversal.
Litecoin Price Rejected
The Litecoin price has increased inside an ascending parallel channel since June 2022. The channel’s resistance and support trend lines have been validated numerous times.
In the past four months, LTC has made three unsuccessful breakout attempts (red icon). They all created upper wicks of varying lengths, leading to a breakdown from the $105 support area last week.
In addition to the fact that the area will now act as resistance, the decline confirms that the previous increase was just a deviation. So, breaking down from the channel’s midline will confirm the bearish LTC trend.
Technical indicators have also turned bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD has made a bearish cross (black circle).
If the Litecoin price closes below the channel’s midline, a drop to the support at $68 could occur.
The daily time frame supports this outlook. It shows that LTC barely holds on to the $97 horizontal support area. Additionally, the price reached the lowest daily close of 2025 on March 9 (green icon).
The RSI and MACD are falling, and neither has generated any bullish divergences. Therefore, a breakdown is the most likely future outlook.
More Downside Likely?
Litecoin’s wave count is similarly bearish. The most likely count shows that the channel contained an A-B-C structure (green), after which a downward movement is likely.
The only saving grace from the count is the possibility of a long-term symmetrical triangle developing. If this is the case, the LTC price will not fall much further than the $65-$70 region.
Rather, it will consolidate inside the triangle before an eventual breakout.
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The long-term count implies that LTC has been trading inside this corrective structure since January 2018. Therefore, a notable upward movement can happen after the triangle is complete.
However, the E wave (red) still needs to be completed, fitting with another LTC price decline toward $65-$70.
Alternatively, a close above $100, especially if it surpasses the triangle’s descending resistance trend line, will confirm the bullish trend reversal.
LTC Bears in Control
While Litecoin held up impressively during January and February, bulls lost momentum in March, creating the year’s lowest daily and weekly closes.
Since Litecoin fell below $100, the most probable future outlook is a decline to $65-$70.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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