The crypto market rise for the past two years has had one main difference to previous cycles: The lack of an altseason.
While there have been periods where altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, the BTCD has risen steadily for over 900 days. In the long-term, most ALT/BTC pairs have trended downward.
With ALTCAP breaking down from a critical horizontal support area, there are worries that the rest of 2025 will be even more bearish for altcoins. Let’s dive into the charts and see what lies ahead.
Altcoin Market Cap Breakdown
The Altcoin Market Cap has fallen since its cycle high of $1.64 trillion in December 2024. The high was slightly below the all-time high of $1.71 trillion, reached in 2021.
This week, ALTCAP broke down from the critical horizontal support area at $1.20 trillion. This is the final support area until $800 billion, so the breakdown could catalyze a lengthier decline.
Furthermore, technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) generated bearish divergences before the drop. Also, the RSI has decreased below 50 while the MACD has fallen below 0.
So, the weekly chart suggests ALTCAP will fall to the $850 billion support, erasing any chances of an altseason in 2025. The Altcoin Season Index mirrors this with a value of 31 , close to Bitcoin season. It only increased above 75, a sign of altcoin season briefly in November 2024.
BTCD Above 60%
The Bitcoin Dominance Rate has traded inside an ascending parallel channel for the past 903 days, increasing by roughly 25%. Both the channel’s resistance and support trend line have been touched numerous times, confirming the pattern’s validity. More recently, the channel’s resistance trend line rejected the price at the start of February (red icon).
Until now, that touch has marked the cycle high for BTCD, which was at 64.34%, the highest value since February 2021, shortly before the previous altcoin season started.
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While BTCD fell afterward, it still trades above the channel’s midline and above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 60.32%. So, the breakout above it is still legitimate.
Technical indicators are showing some bearish signs. This is clear from the bearish divergences (orange) in both the RSI and MACD. However, it is crucial to consider that these indicators have generated bearish divergences for over a year to no avail.
It is worth mentioning that BTCD does not have to break out or down from the channel soon. Rather, it could continue increasing at a gradual pace inside the confines of the pattern.
USDT Dominance Bounces
Finally, the USDT Dominance chart is bullish, ending hopes for an altseason. The chart shows a double bottom pattern between March and December 2024 combined with bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD.
The pattern comes after a completed five-wave downward movement (red), further solidifying the possibility that a trend reversal has started. The USDT dominance is also attempting to break out from a descending resistance trend line, which could further accelerate the rate of increase.
If the increase continues, the USDT dominance could reach the main resistance area at 6.20%, another 1% jump from the current level. Reclaiming this level could take the dominance to its 2022 highs near 8.50%.
No Altseason in 2025
The current market cycle did not have a distinct season and none is likely to come soon. While the BTCD offers some hope for a potential drop, the ALTCAP broke down below support and the USDT dominance is increasing. Therefore, it seems unlikely that there will be an altseason in 2025, at least not one close in magnitude to the previous two.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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