Toncoin (TON) has been in a prolonged downtrend, forming a descending channel since reaching its peak.
However, the price action suggests it may be approaching a key turning point, with signs of a breakout or further decline.
We can evaluate potential price trajectories by analyzing the 4-hour chart for broader trends and the 1-hour chart for short-term movements.
TON Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart of TON reveals a significant downtrend that has been in place since the peak at $8.28 on Jun. 15.
The price has been moving in a corrective structure, following a clear W-X-Y pattern. The Y-wave recently completed around $3.00.
The price is currently sitting near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3.88, a historically significant level for trend reversals.
Additionally, the descending wedge pattern visible in the chart suggests a potential breakout, which would confirm a shift in market momentum.
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Despite the long-term downtrend, early bullish signals are emerging. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly diverges, weakening the selling pressure.
If TON successfully breaks above $3.88, the next key level to watch will be the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4.72, which aligns with previous structural resistance.
However, failure to break out could mean another leg lower toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $2.68, marking critical last-stand support before further downside ensues.
TON Price Prediction
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, TON is at a crossroads. The price remains inside a falling wedge formation, which historically acts as a bullish reversal pattern.
The critical decision point will be the resistance at $3.88 (0.618 Fib level), where the price needs to establish support for further upside momentum.
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above $3.88 would confirm a bullish reversal, likely leading to a test of the $4.72 resistance (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
If this level is cleared, the next logical target is $5.56, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and prior consolidation zones.
Momentum confirmation via RSI and volume spikes would be crucial in validating this scenario.
Bearish Scenario:
If TON fails to sustain above $3.88 and instead faces rejection, it could revisit the previous low around $3.00 or even extend losses to the $2.68 support (0.786 Fib level). A breakdown below $3.00 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest continued bearish control.
The RSI remains neutral, hovering around 40-50, meaning there is room for either direction. Volume confirmation is key, as a breakout without volume would likely be a false signal.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
- Key Resistance: $4.72 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
- Major Resistance: $5.56 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
- Immediate Support: $3.00 (recent low).
- Critical Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
- Short-Term Target: Above $4.72 if breakout confirms.
- Invalidation Zone: Below $3.00, signaling further downside.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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