The most crucial plays in the Super Bowl are not necessarily the most memorable. Nick Foles’ “Philly Special” touchdown catch in Super Bowl 52 against the New England Patriots is likely the moment you can most easily recall from that game, but a 55-yard catch and run by Corey Clement a minute earlier actually caused a greater increase in the Philadelphia Eagles’ chances of winning.

Using play-by-play data and a Vegas-adjusted win probability model from nflfastR, Sportico measured the most important Super Bowl plays of the 21st century by calculating the difference in the teams’ win probabilities before versus after each play.

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For the more visually inclined, we found the plays that caused the sharpest movement in these graphs:

We did not, however, include plays from losing teams since, by definition, they didn’t lead to a win. Apologies to Larry Fitzgerald’s 64-yard touchdown in Super Bowl 43 (+39%), Muhsin Muhammad’s 85-yard touchdown in Super Bowl 38 (+33.9%) and Devin Hester’s opening kickoff touchdown in Super Bowl 41 (+20.1%).

Interestingly, while circus catches are some of the most heralded plays in recent Super Bowl history, and 16 of the 25 Super Bowl MVPs this century have been claimed by quarterbacks, more than half of the plays on our list came from defense or special teams. Below are the 14 plays since 2000 that swung a Super Bowl’s win probability by more than 20%.

(14) Patrick Mahomes 19-yard run on 3rd-and-1 in OT (+21%)
Super Bowl 58: Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22

Fittingly, Mahomes is the only player who appears multiple times on this list. Last year, it was an overtime scramble down the middle of the field and into the red zone that set up the Kansas City Chiefs for Mecole Hardman’s game-winning touchdown.

(13) Chiefs recover muffed punt at 49ers’ 16-yard line in third quarter (+21.4%)
Super Bowl 58: Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22

Sticking with last year’s game, this play turned the tide in regulation. The Chiefs had scored just six points in nearly three quarters and trailed 10-6, but after flipping the field with this fumble recovery, they needed only one play to surpass their previous offensive output and take a 13-10 lead.

(12) Tracy Porter 74-yard interception return TD (+22.3%)
Super Bowl 44: Saints 31 – Colts 17

Despite being overshadowed by two of the greatest Super Bowls of all-time that directly preceded it, this game came down to the wire as well. Peyton Manning was leading a drive into New Orleans territory with less than four minutes remaining, until Porter stepped in front of a pass and took it to the house to seal the win for the Saints.

(11) Packers recover Rashard Mendenhall fumble in fourth quarter (+22.6%)
Super Bowl 45: Packers 31 – Steelers 25

By adding together all the changes in win probability throughout a game to get a measure of “excitement,” this Super Bowl ranks as one of the least thrilling of the 21st century, but it was still a close game to start the fourth quarter. That is, until Clay Matthews forced a fumble near midfield that set up Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to take a two-score lead.

(10) Santonio Holmes 40-yard catch with 1:02 left in fourth quarter (+23.3%)
Super Bowl 43: Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23

Holmes’ iconic toe-tap touchdown in the corner of the end zone nearly made this list, but he also bolstered his Super Bowl MVP case a few plays earlier with a big gain to get the Steelers into the red zone.

(9) Sammy Watkins 38-yard catch with 3:44 left in fourth quarter (+23.5%)
Super Bowl 54: Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20

Most fans remember Mahomes’ deep ball to Tyreek Hill on third-and-15 earlier in the quarter, but the Chiefs’ chances of winning were still a slim 17.5% after those heroics. This less-celebrated pass down the sideline to Watkins gave the Chiefs a win probability of more than 50% for the first time since the beginning of the second half.

(8) Isaac Bruce 73-yard TD catch with 1:54 left in fourth quarter (+23.5%)
Super Bowl 34: Rams 23 – Titans 16

Down the stretch of this contest, Kurt Warner’s high-powered offense had hit a wall, failing to score for more than 20 minutes and allowing the Tennessee Titans to erase a 16-point Rams lead. In one play, St. Louis blew the game open again.

(7) Patrick Mahomes 8-yard run on fourth-and-1 in OT (+23.7%)
Super Bowl 58: Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22

This is Mahomes’ third entry on this list, and the second one for a play with his legs—his 26-yard scamper before the two-minute warning in Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles just missed the cut as well. But if the Chiefs hadn’t converted this first down in overtime the following year, their season would have ended right then and there. Unsurprisingly, this was the highest “excitement” Super Bowl of all-time, according to our aforementioned calculation.

(6) Eagles recover Tom Brady fumble with 1:36 left in fourth quarter (+26.5%)
Super Bowl 52: Eagles 41 – Patriots 33

In a game that featured just one punt and an NFL record 1,151 yards of offense, it felt like the first team to get a defensive stop would win. That’s exactly what happened when Brandon Graham strip-sacked Brady to all but clinch the game for Philadelphia.

(5) Ravens stop 49ers on fourth-and-goal with 1:50 left in fourth quarter (+27%)
Super Bowl 47: Ravens 34 – 49ers 31

A power outage in the Superdome seemingly woke up the 49ers, who clawed back from a 28-6 deficit to give themselves a chance to win the game in the final minutes. The Baltimore Ravens, however, sent a blitz on fourth down, and all Colin Kaepernick could do was lob an incompletion over Michael Crabtree’s head.

(4) Plaxico Burress 13-yard TD catch with 0:35 left in fourth quarter (+27%)
Super Bowl 42: Giants 17 – Patriots 14

David Tyree’s helmet catch, perhaps the most famous play in Super Bowl history, missed this list (+17.4%). Even after that miraculous reception, the New York Giants’ chances weren’t great, as they still needed to score a touchdown with only a minute remaining on the clock. Steve Smith’s third-down conversion with 45 seconds left boosted New York’s win probability another 14%, but it wasn’t until Eli Manning lofted a touchdown to Burress that the Giants were finally in the driver’s seat.

(3) James Harrison 100-yard interception return TD (+29%)
Super Bowl 43: Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23

The only first-half play on this list, Harrison’s pick and ensuing runback was likely a 14-point swing. The Arizona Cardinals were at the goal line eyeing a halftime lead, but instead found themselves down 17-7 going into intermission.

(2) Adam Vinatieri 48-yard game winning field goal (+31.2%)
Super Bowl 36: Patriots 20 – Rams 17

Kickers made less than 60% of their field goals from 40+ yards in the 2001 season, but Vinatieri stepped up and drilled this one right down the middle with plenty of distance, sending the Patriots’ win probability from 68% to 100% for the second biggest upset in Super Bowl history.

(1) Malcolm Butler interception in the end zone (+56.8%)
Super Bowl 49: Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24

On the 1-yard line with 26 seconds remaining, the Seattle Seahawks curiously tried to win the game through the air instead of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch. Butler read the play and held onto the ball through contact. Other models peg this moment at closer to an 80% win probability swing, but regardless of methodology or calculation, Butler’s spot atop this list is likely cemented for many years to come.

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