Max Verstappen’s Orange Army now flocks to Spielberg with a sense of expectation. Every Austrian Grand Prix weekend for the past few years has delivered gratification in some form: he won both races in 2021, finished second in 2022, led from pole to victory in 2023, and won the sprint race last season, even if the GP itself came with a sting in the tail.

His last departure with a whimper came in the 2020 Covid season-opener when an electrical failure caused him to retire, a crushing blow that also sent a signal to the Red Bull hierarchy that the championship was a more distant prospect than they might have expected.

Sunday’s race came to a similarly abrupt conclusion, but this time the party ended after just one lap. Verstappen now trails world championship leader Oscar Piastri by 61 points – and no other driver has ever managed to overcome such a deficit and still win the title.

So it’s no surprise that, after the disastrous 2025 home race, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko more or less wrote off the team’s hopes of defending the championship. The points gap is one thing, but McLaren’s dominant performance is another.

As a disappointed silence settled over the campsites surrounding the Red Bull Ring, team principal Christian Horner dedicated his customary post-race briefing to trying to make sense of the current crisis. One of the key takeaways: it’s not the people.

“We’re at the end of a set of regulations, I think we’re compromised by some of the tools we have, but it’s the same fundamental group of people that 18 months ago had designed a car that won every single grand prix but one. They didn’t suddenly just become idiots overnight,” he said.

A statement that, without additional context, doesn’t quite hold up. It may well be true that the core of the 850-strong workforce in Milton Keynes (at Red Bull Racing and Red Bull Technology) remains unchanged. But several key figures – a fact Horner omitted in his briefing – have indeed left the team in recent years.

The ‘brain drain’ began in 2022 with Dan Fallows, head of aerodynamics, who left for Aston Martin. In 2023, chief designer Rob Marshall joined McLaren – and whether or not you subscribe to the belief that he has been a key influence in that team’s rise to dominance, the timeline broadly aligns. Sporting director Jonathan Wheatley, now team principal at Sauber/Audi, was another key figure to head for the exit.

And perhaps most significant of all – Adrian Newey, the brilliant technical mastermind without whom Red Bull’s F1 triumphs would never have been possible, regardless of whatever sophistry Horner engages in to downplay his contribution.

Adrian Newey quit Red Bull Racing and is now Chief Technical Officer of Aston Martin F1

Photo by: Aston Martin

Behind the scenes, Red Bull’s Formula 1 programme has been a hotbed of intrigue for years. Rumours of a power struggle between Horner and Milton Keynes on one side and Marko, Jos Verstappen and the Fuschl HQ on the other – have persisted. In Saudi Arabia 2024, the conflict nearly escalated out of control.

Senior Red Bull executives had to intervene to force a truce that now endures with great reluctance. No love lost.

Back then, Jos Verstappen warned that the team risked being “torn apart. It can’t go on like this.” External observers such as ex-grand prix driver Ralf Schumacher predicted a slide into mediocrity.

A year later, the facts are in and it looks as if Ralf was right. Of Red Bull Racing’s 162 points, 155 belong to Verstappen – just seven to the second car. To put that into perspective: if Verstappen were removed from the equation and the points of the second car were doubled, Red Bull Racing would sit second-to-last in the constructors’ championship with 14 points. Only Alpine (11) would fare worse.

Seen in that light, Schumacher’s prediction was generous. Without Verstappen, Red Bull Racing wouldn’t just be mediocre – it’d be irrelevant.

Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

Ultimately, if the boss wishes to bask in a company’s success they must also bear responsibility for failure. Formula 1 has many parallels with football, where even coaches with an eminent track record face the sack if results don’t move the needle – just ask the many ex-bosses of the aforementioned Alpine.

Horner’s achievements in Red Bull’s Formula 1 history are undisputed. Dietrich Mateschitz and Helmut Marko once gave him, then a relative nobody, the chance of a lifetime – and he seized it. Under Horner’s leadership, what had been a laughing stock as Jaguar Racing became a championship-winning force.

But wise leaders also acknowledge the contribution of the personnel beneath them. In the absence of Mateschitz – who passed away in October 2022 – Horner is said to have convinced Red Bull’s Thai majority owners that the exodus of key staff was nothing to worry about so long as he remained in charge.

He may not have been personally responsible for these departures but, at 51, Horner is no longer untouchable. Support from Thailand, which already made some in the Austrian wing of the company uneasy last year, is starting to crumble. In the end, the Yoovidhya clan prizes Red Bull’s success, as a racing team and as a brand that sells cans of fizzy pop, above personal loyalties.

Christian Horner, Team Principal, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Getty Images

At the beginning of this year, there was a moment that initially went widely unnoticed. When Horner was mercilessly booed by the crowd during his appearance at the big Formula 1 launch event in London, ‘chief bull’ Oliver Mintzlaff witnessed the uncomfortable spectacle from the VIP area.

Max Verstappen, meanwhile, has tried to remain aloof from the politics. He gives the impression of someone who wants one thing above all else: to win races and championships with the best car. His contract with Red Bull officially runs until the end of 2028. But even Horner recently remarked that contracts aren’t worth much once the love is gone.

In that euphoric moment after winning his first title in Abu Dhabi, in 2021 Verstappen said: “Can we do this for another 10, 15 years together?”

Now, though, he’s making little effort to dispel the doubts surrounding his future. He’s clearly annoyed by the constant speculation. But he’s also never given a clear answer.

He maintained that policy on Thursday afternoon in Spielberg, during the official FIA press conference, in response to a simple question: “Max, are you going to be driving for Red Bull Racing next year?”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Andy Hone / LAT Images via Getty Images

He could have simply said “yes” – and that would have removed some of the oxygen from the persistent rumours.

Instead, he replied: “I don’t think we need to talk about that. I don’t know, do you want me to repeat what I said last year?

“I don’t know. It’s the same answer. I don’t even remember what I said last year, really. But again, it’s not really on my mind. Just driving well, trying to push the performance, and then we focus on next year.”

It may be true that Max’s faith in the Milton Keynes power unit project is limited – and that, given the choice, he’d prefer to have Mercedes or Honda power behind him in 2026. But next year marks a reset for everyone. Not even Toto Wolff or Adrian Newey can promise guaranteed success.

It would be far more rational to stay at least one more year and then reassess in the summer of 2026 who’s truly mastered the new regulations. Because one thing is certain: when a driver like Verstappen comes knocking, doors will open – likely even where other drivers are still under contract.

Whether he stays or goes is something probably only Verstappen himself knows. And maybe not even he does.
 
But one thing seems fairly certain: if Verstappen does leave, Red Bull’s downfall will be complete. And the prospect of that will certainly be a factor in how Horner sleeps at night.