Hurricane Erick is now moving inland and bringing the potential for life-threatening rainfall flooding and gusty winds, after making a historic landfall in southern Mexico at Category 3 intensity.
Erick rapidly intensified from a 40 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning to Cat 4 intensity at midnight Thursday morning. Six hours later, Erick made landfall in extreme western Oaxaca state east of Punta Maldonado as a Cat 3 with 125 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Erick became the first Eastern Pacific major hurricane on record to landfall in Mexico prior to August, in records dating to the late 1950s. The previous earliest major hurricane to landfall in western Mexico from the Pacific side was Kiko, on Aug. 26, 1989, in the southern Baja Peninsula, according to NOAA records.
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Erick became the Eastern Pacific’s second hurricane of the season early Wednesday morning, almost four weeks ahead of the season’s average second hurricane pace. The season’s fifth storm has historically formed by July 23, based on the 1991-2020 average.
Forecast
-Timing, Intensity: Now inland, Erick is expected to dissipate by late tonight or early Friday, but will still lash parts of southern Mexico the rest of the day.
Projected Path
–Heavy Rain A More Widespread Threat: The heaviest totals of 8 to 12 inches, with locally up to 16 inches possible, are forecast in the Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely and mudslides are a threat in the mountainous terrain near this coast.
Puerto Escondido, in coastal Oaxaca state, has already seen at least 10.75 inches of rain through Thursday morning.
Rainfall Forecast
-Wind Impacts: Erick’s worst wind impacts will be along the coast in western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states, but gusty winds will move into southern Mexico today. Those greatest threats will be east of Acapulco, but strong wind gusts are also possible in the city, particularly over higher terrain.
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