Mexico is bracing for a hurricane from the Eastern Pacific’s fifth named storm, Erick, which is likely to undergo rapid intensification ahead of landfall.
While the Atlantic has been calm, the Eastern Pacific is off to a fast start. The season’s fifth storm has historically formed by July 23, based on the 1991-2020 average, so Erick’s arrival is more than a month ahead of schedule.
Forecast
-Alerts: Hurricane warnings and watches are now posted for Mexico’s southwest coast. Those alerts now extend west of the Acapulco area, as seen in the map above.
-Timing: Erick is organizing a few hundred miles south of Mexico and is tracking generally northwest. That path will allow heavy rain and strong winds to begin spreading across Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states by late Wednesday or early Thursday. Peak impacts for much of the southwest coast of Mexico are expected Thursday. Bands of rain are already pivoting inland across parts of eastern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador.
-Intensity: Warm waters, favorable upper-level winds and moisture favor Erick intensifying ahead of its expected Mexico strike. Rapid intensification is likely and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Erick to be at least a Category 2 as it nears the coast. There is a chance it could be a category stronger.
Projected Path
-Tricky Track For Surge, Wind Impacts: Erick’s relatively parallel path, in relation to the Mexican coastline, makes it difficult to pinpoint an exact landfall location. That makes a difference when it comes to what locations will see the worst storm surge and damaging wind impacts in parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero states. In general, those threats will be greatest near and just east of where the center comes ashore, most likely east of Acapulco.
–Heavy Rain A More Widespread Threat: The heaviest totals of 8 to 16 inches, with locally up to 20 inches possible, are forecast in the Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely and mudslides are a threat in the mountainous terrain near this coast.
Rainfall Forecast
Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
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