Apparently, even the Colorado Rockies have their limits.
On Sunday, the day after an embarrassing 21-0 loss to the San Diego Padres dropped the team’s record to 6-33, the Rockies finally fired longtime manager Bud Black — despite general manager Bill Schmidt giving Black a vote of confidence prior to Saturday’s game. Colorado is careening toward not just a seventh consecutive losing season, but a season that could be headed in the same direction as the Chicago White Sox in 2024: chasing the modern record for losses in a season.
Yep, here we go again.
Saturday’s loss capped a remarkable seven-game stretch in which the Rockies allowed six, nine, eight, 10, 11, 13 and 21 runs, respectively. They became the first team in MLB history to allow at least eight runs and then increase their runs allowed in each of their next four games. The 21-0 loss was the third-biggest shutout margin in the major leagues since 1901. The Rockies’ pitching line over that seven-game skid: 62 IP, 96 H, 25 BB, 49 SO, 11 HR, .353 batting average and 9.00 ERA.
And the ERA was 9.00 only because 16 of the 78 total runs they allowed were unearned.
That unearned runs total might suggest that the Rockies, contrary to owner Dick Monfort’s claim back in February, will not have one of the best infield defenses in “history.” Instead, the Rockies rank 28th in the majors in defensive runs saved across all positions — and last in runs allowed and second-to-last in runs scored.
Now, this isn’t all Black’s fault, of course. The Rockies have been headed in this direction for years, trying to build mostly from within as they rarely make trades or sign free agents (and when they did, it was for Kris Bryant, who has barely been on the field in four seasons with the team). The belief across the sport is the Rockies remain well behind other organizations in applying analytics and that they’ve made major mistakes, such as not getting enough in return for Nolan Arenado or letting Trevor Story head to free agency without trading him.
The Rockies did rally to win on Sunday in what would be Black’s final game after nine seasons to improve to 7-33, with third-base coach Warren Schaeffer taking over as interim manager for the rest of the season and former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, recently named the team’s hitting coach, taking over as bench coach.
“While we all share responsibility in how this season has played out, these changes are necessary,” Monfort said in a statement. “We will use the remainder of 2025 to improve where we can on the field and to evaluate all areas of our operation so we can properly turn the page into the next chapter of Rockies Baseball.”
Comparisons to the White Sox are inevitable. The Rockies’ record through 40 games, prior to Monday’s loss to Texas, put them on a pace to finish 28-134 — which would be a remarkable 13 games worse than Chicago’s 41-121 record.
It’s not like the Rockies haven’t earned that win-loss record: They have been outscored by 128 runs, the second-worst run differential through 40 games since 1900, with only the 2023 Oakland Athletics worse at minus-144. Those A’s were 9-31 through 40 games and 12-50 through 62 games — a 31-win pace — but they at least managed to play a little better the rest of the way and finished 50-112.
So, maybe there’s hope for the Rockies.
Indeed, that’s what made the White Sox so amazing last year — it took a lot of consistently awful baseball to lose 121 games. They were 12-28 through 40 games and 14-30 through 44 games before the losing really kicked in:
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May 17 to June 6: 1-18
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July 10 to Aug. 5: 0-21
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Aug. 17 to Sept.13: 3-22
To the White Sox’s credit, they did manage to win five of the final six games, so while they have the most losses since 1900, their .253 winning percentage is not the worst, with the 1916 A’s (.235), 1935 Braves (.248), 1962 Mets (.250) and 1904 Senators (.252) all worse.
But the Rockies are playing from ahead with such a historically bad start. They have a chance at setting a new single season loss record. And here are the three reasons they might catch the White Sox:
1. The starting pitching is terrible
The Rockies have a 7.09 ERA through 40 games, which is the worst by a National League team since … the 2004 Rockies had a 7.33 ERA. Only two other teams, the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins, have a rotation ERA higher than 4.62 this season. On the other hand, the 2024 White Sox managed to rank 25th in the majors in rotation ERA. They had two excellent starters in Garrett Crochet (6-12, 3.58 ERA, 4.1 WAR) and Erick Fedde (7-4, 3.11 ERA, 4.6 WAR), at least until Fedde was dealt at the trade deadline.
The Rockies, meanwhile, are still relying on Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela — the same trio featured in the rotation when the Rockies made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018. They were worth a combined 13.2 WAR in 2018, but that was seven years ago, and the Rockies’ loyalty in contract extensions to all three hasn’t paid off. Freeland signed a five-year, $64 million extension in 2022 but has a 5.01 ERA and just 3.4 WAR since then. Marquez signed a two-year, $20 million extension coming off Tommy John surgery in 2023, but he has an 8.27 ERA this season. Senzatela has won four games since signing a $50.5 million deal in 2022.
In 2025, they’re a combined 2-17 with a 6.79 ERA while allowing a .349 average. Chase Dollander was the team’s top prospect entering the season but has 6.88 ERA through seven career starts and poor Bradley Blalock was left in to allow 12 runs on Saturday. And it’s not just that they’re pitching at Coors Field, either. Certainly, injuries have played a role with Marquez and Senzatela, but Freeland has been mostly healthy … and has a 4.51 ERA on the road since 2022.
In other words, while the White Sox’s rotation at least kept them in games at times, the Rockies are often out of it before they can get to their bullpen.
2. The offense might be worse
The White Sox hit .221/.278/.340 while scoring just 507 runs in 2024 — a remarkable 97 fewer than the next lowest team. The Rockies are hitting .219/.286/.360 through their first 40 games and are on pace for 539 runs. They have marginally better raw stats, but that doesn’t factor in Coors Field. They’re hitting .189 in 20 road games.
The 2024 White Sox were a historically bad offense. The only player with regular playing time to finish with an above-average OPS+ was Tommy Pham, who posted a 103 OPS+ in 297 plate appearances. Their top three players in plate appearances were Andrew Vaughn (98 OPS+), Andrew Benintendi (94) and Gavin Sheets (89). The down-roster players were even worse than that with the likes of Miguel Vargas (.104 average in 135 at-bats), Martin Maldonado (.119 average in 135 at-bats) and Dominic Fletcher (.206 average, one home run in 223 at-bats).
The Rockies do have two players with an above-average OPS+ in catcher/DH Hunter Goodman (127) and outfielder Jordan Beck (131). While I’m skeptical whether either player can keep that going, they do have other hitters who might improve, including Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia, who each ran an OPS+ above 100 last season (although, just barely).
Chicago finished with a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 75. That figure adjusts for home park and era, and it is tied for 13th worst since 1947 and ranks third worst since 2000. Meanwhile, Colorado currently has a wRC+ of 66. That would be the worst since 1947 — worse than the 1963 Mets, who hit .219/.285/.315 on their way to a wRC+ of 69.
Still, the Rockies had the second-worst wRC+ last season ahead of only the White Sox — and brought back almost entirely the same group of players. Like the White Sox, the Rockies also aren’t particularly young. The average age of Chicago in 2024, adjusted for playing time, was 27.8, right at the MLB average of 27.9; Colorado is at 28.0 years old, just a notch below the MLB average of 28.2.
Is there help on the way? Infield prospect Adael Amador is up in the majors now and hitting .173 through his first 20 games. Former first-round pick Zac Veen was up for a spell and hit .118 in 34 at-bats. Outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez is one of the team’s top prospects and is hitting .208 in Triple-A. And the rest of their hitting prospects are further away. They will get a boost when Tovar returns from the injured list, but any improvement is going to have come from players already on the roster.
3. They have a tougher schedule
While the AL Central saw three teams make the playoffs and four teams finish above .500 in 2024 — beating up on the White Sox helped in that regard — the 2025 NL West looks like a much tougher division. Some numbers:
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In 2024, the four other AL Central teams were 226-213 outside the division (.522).
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So far in 2025, the four other NL West teams are 80-58 outside the division (.579).
The catch here is the Rockies have played only 13 games so far within their division — and have gone 2-11. They still have 39 of their 52 division games left to play. It doesn’t help that with the Rockies playing their worst baseball right now, they’re in the midst of a difficult stretch: Their only series between now and June 12 against teams with losing records are the current series against Texas (the Rangers entered the series 20-21) and one against the Marlins June 2-4.
So, can the Rockies lose 122 games?
They weren’t forecasted to be this bad. In fact, FanGraphs projects them playing close to .400 ball the rest of the way and finishing 55-107.
The biggest difference between the 2025 Rockies and the 2024 White Sox is the bullpen. Chicago had a bad bullpen that went 15-49 with a 4.73 ERA and was particularly bad in close games, finishing with minus-11.22 win probability added, the worst total for any bullpen since 2000.
Colorado ranks 19th in bullpen ERA at 4.07, and its high-leverage relievers have been solid, with the Rockies also ranking 19th in the majors with a bullpen WPA of 0.57 — though they’re 0-3 in extra-inning games (the White Sox went 4-10 in extra-inning games). Jake Bird and Seth Halvorsen have been effective while Zach Agnos has a couple saves and only one earned run allowed in 10 ⅓ innings, although he has struck out only four batters. If the Rockies can hold the leads they do get, they should be able to avoid the fate of the White Sox.
They’ll have to get those leads to begin with, though. Eleven of the Rockies’ 34 losses are considered “blowout” losses — five or more runs. That’s around 32%. The 2024 White Sox had a 31% blowout loss rate. The 1962 Mets were also at 31%. That tells us that the Rockies have a chance to chase down last year’s historic White Sox club.
It’s an astonishingly bad start to a season. But here’s maybe the most astonishing number of all: The Rockies drew 38,423 fans for that 21-run loss on Saturday.
Give the Rockies’ marketing people a raise.
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