Key Takeaways
- SOL broke above 0.5 Fib, showing strong bullish momentum.
- RSI divergence signals a weakening trend on lower timeframes.
- A local top near $185 is likely before the correction begins.
Solana (SOL) has initiated a sharp recovery following a prolonged corrective phase, climbing above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
Since its recent higher low on May 6, it has gained another 22%, making a higher high.
As it started to enter the overbought zone, how far can it go in this advancement?
SOL Price Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows that Solana completed a complex WXY corrective structure, with the Y-wave bottoming at $96 on April 7.
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The bounce followed after the structure bottomed and found solid support at the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($118.34) and rallied past the 0.5 retracement at $151.96.
The price is now pressing toward the 0.382 Fib at $185.57, marking a critical resistance level.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now entering overbought territory at 75, hinting at exhaustion, which aligns with the prior rejection zones seen in January and March.
The rally also follows a breakout from a multi-month descending channel, indicating a shift in market structure.
The descending channel breakout from April 9 at $118 closely aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the structure’s descending trendline.
If momentum sustains, the next upside target remains $185–$190, aligning with the 0.382 Fib retracement level.
However, the distance from key moving averages and the RSI overextension caution that a correction or sideways consolidation could follow shortly.
A retracement to the $150 range (0.5 Fib) could serve as the first support, while deeper pullbacks may target the $135 area, depending on macro conditions.
SOL Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart depicts a clear five-wave impulse structure unfolding, with subwave (iii) recently peaking near $170 and a small (iv) correction underway.
The projected wave (5) could extend toward the $185–$190 region, matching the higher timeframe 0.382 Fib level and completing the full impulsive wave.
The RSI divergence is also visible on the 1-hour timeframe, with the current RSI peak at 85 failing to surpass the earlier high despite higher price action.
This negative divergence often precedes a local top, especially when combined with an ending diagonal or fifth-wave structure.
Assuming subwave (iv) consolidates near the $160–$165 range, a final push higher could unfold, testing the $185 resistance or higher.
This aligns with the 0.382 Fib from the macro downtrend and completes the internal fifth wave, offering a high-probability reversal or correction zone.
Post-impulse, a correction is likely, possibly targeting $151 (0.5 Fib) or deeper toward $135–$140, depending on market sentiment and BTC correlation.
Until invalidation below $151, short-term bulls may aim to exit around $185, while medium-term traders should prepare for a potential top and reentry lower.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: $185.57 (0.382 Fib)
- Structural Support: $151.96 (0.5 Fib)
- Macro Low Zone: $118.34 (0.618 Fib)
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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