When 68 million Filipinos head to the polls on Monday, Sara Duterte’s name will not be on the ballot.
But the results of the election will have a large, if not direct, impact on her political future.
They will affect both her role as the Philippines’ current vice-president and any hopes she might have of running for the country’s presidency one day, as she faces the prospect of a ban from politics – decided by lawmakers in the Senate.
The 46-year-old is the eldest daughter of the Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte. She trained as a lawyer before entering politics in 2007, when she was elected as her father’s vice-mayor in their family’s hometown Davao.
Rodrigo Duterte has described her as the “alpha” character of the family, who always gets her way.
The younger Duterte was previously filmed punching a court official in the face after he refused her request, leading one local news outlet to bestow the nickname of “the slugger” upon her.
She and her father are known to share similar traits, as well as a shared passion for riding big motorbikes.
As one cable from the US embassy in Manila in 2009, leaked by Wikileaks, described her: “A tough-minded individual who, like her father, is difficult to engage.”
In 2010, she succeeded her father to become the first female mayor of Davao. But it was only in 2021 that she decided to make her way to national politics.
The next year she ran on a joint ticket with the scion of another political dynasty – Ferdinand Marcos Jr. He was going for the top job, with Duterte as his deputy.
The assumption was that she would then be in a prime position to contest the next presidential election in 2028, as presidents are limited only to one six-year term in the Philippines.
The strategy proved effective and the duo won by a landslide.
But then it quickly started to unravel.
Cracks started to emerge in their alliance even before the euphoria of their election win faded. Duterte publicly expressed her preference to be defence secretary but she was instead handed the education portfolio.
The House of Representatives soon after scrutinised Duterte’s request for confidential funds – millions of pesos that she could spend without stringent documentation.
Then, Rodrigo Duterte spoke at a late night rally, accusing President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos of being a junkie and a weak leader.
Soon after, First Lady Liza Marcos snubbed Sara Duterte at an event, in full view of news cameras. She admitted that it was intentional, saying Duterte should not have stayed silent in the background while her father accused the president of drug use.
After Duterte resigned from the cabinet in July last year, her language became increasingly inflammatory.
She said she had “talked to someone” to “go kill” Marcos, his wife and his cousin, who is also the speaker of the House. She also told reporters her relationship with Marcos had become toxic and she dreamed of cutting off his head.
Such remarks are shocking for someone who is not acquainted with Philippine politics. But Duterte’s strong personality has only endeared her to the public and she remains popular in the south, as well as among the millions of overseas Filipino workers.
But in February this year, lawmakers voted to impeach Duterte, accusing her of misusing public funds and threatening to have President Marcos assassinated.
She will be tried by the Senate and, if found guilty, removed from office and banned from running in future elections.
Duterte has denied the charges and alleges she is the victim of a political vendetta.
But whether or not she will be impeached hinges a lot on the upcoming election – and the composition of the Senate thereafter.
For her to be impeached, two thirds of the Senate would need to vote for this. The make-up of the upcoming Senate will be determined on Monday’s election, with both Marcos and Duterte backing competing candidates.
For Durterte, the election will also be a barometer of support for her family, and whether she can capitalise on this for her presidential run in 2028.
But for now, her fate hangs in the balance.
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