Key Takeaways
- DOGE broke out of a long-term descending channel.
- Five-wave impulse shows short-term rally exhaustion.
- A correction toward $0.16–$0.17 is likely before the new rally.
After months of corrective decline, Dogecoin finally broke out of its descending channel.
It initiated a five-wave impulsive structure, suggesting a shift from a bearish macro to a potentially bullish trend.
However, signs of exhaustion are emerging in the short term, pointing to a possible correction.
DOGE Price Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Dogecoin has exited its multi-month descending channel, ending a prolonged W-X-Y-X-Z correction that began in December 2024.
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This macro structure bottomed near $0.13 in early April and reversed sharply, leading to a five-wave impulse to the upside.
This impulsive move culminated near $0.185, where DOGE is currently consolidating.
The price sits just above the key 0.786 Fib retracement of the previous macro correction at $0.174, a critical level that has flipped from resistance to support.
Momentum on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled slightly from overbought levels, indicating potential for a pause or retracement.
With a completed wave (v) on the lower time frame and potential divergence forming, DOGE may now enter a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) structure.
The wave count suggests the macro correction is complete, meaning dips could offer higher low opportunities rather than trend continuations downward.
As long as DOGE holds above $0.174, the breakout remains valid.
A deeper retracement could retest the $0.16 area — a former demand zone and Fib confluence — but the larger trend appears to have flipped bullish.
The next major resistance lies near $0.21, aligning with the pre-breakdown level from January.
DOGE Price Prediction
The 1-hour chart paints a more nuanced picture of DOGE’s short-term movement.
After completing wave (v), the price action entered a wedge-like formation, followed by a sharp drop and partial recovery.
This looks like the beginning of a (a)-(b)-(c) corrective wave, with wave (b) now testing resistance near the 0.236 Fib at $0.1817.
Wave (c) is expected to continue downward, targeting a cluster of Fib levels:
- 0.5 and 0.618 extension levels at $0.1778 and $0.1761,
- 1.0 extension at $0.1706, close to the structural support,
- 1.272 and 1.618 extensions at $0.1667 and $0.1617.
The RSI remains in neutral territory, allowing for a further upward move. The corrective scenario remains intact if wave (b) fails to break $0.1851 — the top of the previous wedge.
Support between $0.160 and $0.165 aligns with historical demand and could serve as a pivot for the next bullish leg.
However, if DOGE breaks below $0.156, it may revisit macro support near $0.14. Until then, the bias remains for a short-term drop followed by recovery.
This presents a potential buy-the-dip opportunity for medium-term bulls, particularly near the 1.0–1.618 Fib extension zone, assuming macro trend strength holds.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $0.1706 (1.0 Fib), $0.1667 (1.272 Fib), $0.1609 (1.618 Fib).
- Immediate Resistance: $0.1817 (0.236 Fib), $0.1851 (local top), $0.21 (macro resistance).
- Breakout Confirmation: Break above $0.1851 with strong volume.
- Invalidation Level: Drop below $0.1560 breaks bullish structure.
- Fractal Watch Zone: $0.160–$0.166 (wave (c) target zone).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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